Rishi Sunak faces southern discomfort

Rishi Sunak wakes to warnings that the Tories could lose 1,000 seats in the local elections. What had been talked up as expectation management is now viewed as a possibility as the party finds itself squeezed by both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Keir Starmer’s party is showing signs of progress in some so-called red wall areas while the Tories are losing support in traditonal strongholds in the south. It’s worth noting of course that it is still early days, with results due to come through well into Saturday. But the early signs are not particularly encouraging for the Conservatives.

Overnight Labour has taken control of Plymouth council as well as Stoke-on-Trent – two of its key targets. Meanwhile when it comes to the Conservatives’ blue wall, the Liberal Democrats have had a good night. There are early signs of success in Windsor and Maidenhead (as I reported here the party hoped to have a symbolic win and take the ward of Eton and Castle). One big Tory upset of the night so far is Hertsmere, the local authority in deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden’s seat. The Tories have lost control for the first time since 1999 – it is now in no overall control – after successes for both Lib Dem and Labour councillors.

Already the spin machine is out in force. Labour’s National Campaign Co-ordinator Shabana Mahmood has heralded the results as proof Keir Starmer is ‘on course for a majority Labour government’. The party says that based on the results so far, they are confident Labour ‘will have an equivalent vote share lead of at least 8 points’ which in a general election would see the party ‘win a majority government taking into account the anticipated recovery in Scotland’. However, it’s worth pointing out that the polling expert Professor John Curtice has said Labour needs a double-digit lead over the Conservatives to demonstrate that Starmer is heading for Downing Street.

The line from the Tories is that it was always going to be a tough night and ‘there is a long way to go yet’. While bad results were expected, the reality of heavy losses could still set off nerves within the Tory party. The Prime Minister can at least take comfort from the fact that so far Tory councillors are not blaming his leadership. Instead, the line from No. 10 that it was always going to be a difficult night following last year’s chaos is being broadly echoed by those on the ground dealing first hand with the electoral fallout. It will be a test for Tory unity as to whether that line holds as further results come in.