Can Kemi Badenoch reach the final two of the Tory leadership contest? So far this has been the key question at Conservative party conference. Of the leadership candidates, Badenoch has had the bumpiest conference so far, with criticism of her comments on maternity pay and business regulation more generally.
The argument from the Badenoch camp is that she is the clear favourite with the membership so it would be wrong to block her from reaching the final stage of the contest, where the grassroots get to pick their favourite out of two candidates.
However, adding to Badenoch’s difficulties is a new poll of the membership. A YouGov poll suggests that Badenoch’s apparent lead has reduced over the course of the contest. Six weeks ago, the pollster had Badenoch on an 18-point lead over her nearest rival, Robert Jenrick. The latest poll sees that lead slashed to four points.
In a two-horse race, Badenoch polls 52 per cent to Jenrick’s 48 per cent. The poll suggests that the race is wide open more generally. Should James Cleverly beat Badenoch to the final two, it could also be a tight race between him and Jenrick. YouGov have Jenrick beating Cleverly by just four points in a run-off scenario, with Jenrick on 52 per cent and Cleverly on 48 per cent. It is Tom Tugendhat who has the toughest task – in a run-off with Jenrick, YouGov suggests he trails by 16 points.
The reason all the candidates are being pitted against Jenrick is that his team are confident he already has the numbers to make the final two. This means they have been able to spend a lot of their campaign time over the past few weeks focusing on the membership – with multiple association visits and targeted messaging.
Some of Jenrick's supporters still take the view that if Badenoch reaches the final stage, he will have a tough time beating her. But this poll will add to the sentiment building at this conference that this race is wide open. If Jenrick wins, the Tories will move to having a harder line on immigration – including a pledge to leave the ECHR. The pressure is building for the speeches on Wednesday.
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