One of France’s dullest politicians is now odds-on to take up residence in the
Élysée Palace next year. François Hollande, the former leader of the French Socialists, has emerged on top in a competition to take on Nicolas Sarkozy for the presidency.
Six contestants vied for the Socialist nomination, including Ségolène Royal, Hollande’s former partner who lost to Sarkozy in 2007. In the first round of the primaries yesterday, Hollande finished first ahead of current Socialist leader Martine Aubry. Here are the results based on 82 per cent of the votes cast:
The two will now face each other in a second round on Sunday, with Hollande the clear favourite.
Policy-wise, the differences between Hollande and Aubry seem small. They have both signed on to promote “The Change”, which mixes Keynsian stimulus — including the creation of a public investment bank, the construction of 150,000 public-housing units, and changes in taxes on companies — with market-reassuring measures such as cutting the budget deficit to below 3 per cent of GDP by the end of 2013.
But Hollande looks a better bet against Sarkozy than Aubry. Either of them would likely make it through the first round of presidential voting, which takes place in April next year. But recent polls suggest Hollande would win it by 11 points over Sarkozy. Aubry, on the other hand, has just a five point lead:
Meanwhile, in polling for the second round run-off, Hollande leads Sarkozy 60-40. Aubry’s lead is smaller but still sizeable, at 57-43.
That said, a lot will turn on how well the smaller-party candidates do in the presidential poll. And nobody should underestimate Sarkozy’s sheer will to win. Some say even his marriage depends on it. The president also has the advantage of incumbency. He will seek a boost from France’s current position as chair of the G20 — particularly at the November summit in Cannes, where European leaders will try to show they can resolve the 18-month long debt crisis that’s threatening to plunge the global economy into recession.
A Hollande/Sarkozy fight in 2012 would pit one of Europe’s most energetic politicians against one of its dullest. It will be fun to watch.
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