An engaging article by Simon Jenkins in today’s Guardian, on why the Tories shouldn’t worry about the vacillating opinion polls, and would be better served by lying low for the time being:
“There is no electoral advantage ever to be gained by an opposition during a national crisis. The sane policy is to keep your head down and stay quiet… ..Political commentators have widely attributed Cameron’s fall to the vagaries of his economic policy and the vacillations of Osborne. History offers no support for this analysis. It suggests that the behaviour of an opposition at such a time is irrelevant.
History also suggests that Brown’s current standing will for sure decline as crisis turns to long, grinding recession. After an initial rush for safety, voters will peep nervously from the bunker and see the blasted political landscape for what it is, the result of a cruelly mismanaged economy. For that, as in the 1970s, the government of the day will be blamed.
That is the reason why the Conservatives should not panic and Labour should not lapse into euphoria. That is what both are now doing.”
While there’s certainly a lot that rings true in what Jenkins writes, I’m still not completely convinced by the “lie low” argument. The current danger for the Tories is that, unchecked and unopposed, the Government’s narrative that borrowing, spending and unfunded tax cuts are Good Things could take root. That would be just as constraining for a Cameron government – and, potentially, even damaging for the country – as the “spending = investment” mantra was for previous Tory leaders over the past decade. And that is why it has to be attacked. What do CoffeeHousers think?
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