You know what to expect: Theresa May wins, Andrea Leadsom comes second. Liam Fox forced out today, Stephen Crabb probably joins him voluntarily leaving Michael Gove to fight with Leadsom for second place – or, perhaps, both dropping out to let May take the crown.
You also know that the expected stopped happening in British politics some time ago.
Andrea Leadsom bombed in the Tory hustings last night; one Tory MP present told me that he’d have been embarrassed to have delivered a speech of that quality to a golf club. She finished by saying she was standing to be party leader then added, in a quiet voice as if even she didn’t quite believe it, ‘and also as Prime Minister’. This has set a lot of MPs thinking that they should vote tactically: that if there’s a risk that Tory members might enstool Leadsom then it’s best she doesn’t get into the final two. And that they may vote tactically to make sure.
One Theresa-supporting MP told me that the Home Secretary’s performance was ‘solid’ but Liam Fox ‘blew everyone else out of the water’ with energy, vision, talking in optimistic and authoritative terms about the opportunities now facing the party. It made him think that Fox, who is very much the underdog, might not be first out tonight.
The drama of Michael Gove’s entry into the race is still eclipsing anything the Justice Secretary might have to say. No one can get past his knifing of Boris; this might change if Gove gets into the final two. There were two hustings last night: one in front of all Tory MPs and another in a second group of about 40 of then. Gove delivered a superb performance at this smaller meeting, making a few May-backing MPs wonder if he’d be their second choice. And, if so, they might have the numbers to lend some support to him to put him ahead of Andrea Leadsom.
What does this all mean? I have no idea. But I suspect that Westminster has not yet run out of surprises for us.
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