The British weather is improving – and that is bad news for Labour’s migration efforts. For the past five years, the beginning of spring has coincided with an uptick in Channel crossings; ministers expect the same again this summer. It is a phenomena that has reduced a succession of Home Secretaries to little more than weathermen; Yvette Cooper this weekend blamed sunnier conditions for the record number of arrivals this year. So far, 6,632 migrants have reached the UK since January, up from 4,600 at the same point in 2024. The small boats are no longer even that small: people smugglers are now favouring larger vessels, with 98 people crammed into one craft last year.
Ahead of another looming surge, Keir Starmer has therefore done what he likes to do best: convening a summit in London. The Prime Minister – whose new-found love of the international circuit has raised eyebrows in Whitehall – gathered officials from 40 countries together this morning to discuss how best to ‘smash the gangs.’ The grandly-titled ‘Organised Immigration Crime Summit’ is Sir Keir’s latest attempt to use international partners for international problems. To further the cause of multilateralism, the government has announced two new initiatives: a £33 million fund to boost prosecutions overseas and a new international unit of the Crown Prosecution Service. The latter move is a deliberate echo of what Starmer did as Director of Public Prosecutions a decade ago.
To accompany the press conference, Sir Keir gave a speech in which he sought to echo voters' frustrations at the continual spectacle of small boats crossing the Channel. He told broadcasters that illegal migration 'makes me angry', describing it is as 'unfair on ordinary working people who pay the price. From the cost of hotels, to our public services struggling under the strain.' That argument will certainly find favour in the Treasury, who have to find ever-increasing sums to house those arriving here. Home Office spending on asylum surged by more than a third last year to nearly £5.4billion. Much of what this government is doing – be it intelligence-sharing or cracking down on illegal working in beauty salons – would be done by any sensible Tory government too.
The key question is whether Labour is going far enough. Having killed the Rwanda plan on her first day in office, Yvette Cooper told broadcasters again this weekend that ministers are still 'looking at' third-country processing for asylum claims. Starmer's argument is that Rwanda was never going to work; rather than being a silver bullet, it was nothing more than a dud weapon. He said today that the government is 'building up' an 'arsenal' to 'smash the gangs once and for all.' But nine months into the life of this government, the weapons currently available to ministers look insufficient to deter the fresh summer wave now looming.
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