Sunak holds Braverman’s fate in his hands

Suella Braverman is in the firing line, following reports the Home Secretary asked civil servants for advice on arranging a private one-to-one driving awareness course to help her avoid a speeding fine and points on her licence. Braverman is accused of breaking the ministerial code by directing civil servants to assist with her personal affairs. In a sign that Braverman could face an investigation into the matter, the Prime Minister is to have a conversation with his independent ethics adviser, Sir Laurie Magnus, tomorrow when he returns from the G7 summit.

So how much trouble is Braverman really in? Both her critics and supporters have been out in full force over the past 24 hours to advance their case. The allegations date back to a speeding fine Braverman received when she was serving as Attorney General. She was offered the choice of either a fine and points on her driving licence, or a speed awareness course. Originally, she picked to do the speed awareness course.

However, on being appointed Home Secretary by Liz Truss, the then prime minister, Braverman asked civil servants about arranging a course for just her, citing security concerns about doing one as part of a group. An ally of Braverman says that she was seeking advice for what a Home Secretary should do in such a situation. However, Braverman was told that this was not a matter for the civil service so she then asked a government adviser for assistance on the matter. When the course provider came back to say that it was not possible, Braverman opted to take the fine and accept the points.

Braverman’s opposite number on the Labour benches Yvette Cooper has since accused the Home Secretary of trying to ‘use her position to avoid a legal penalty’. However, if there is an investigation into Braverman by Magnus, it will likely try to find out whether she broke the ministerial code by directing civil servants to help with her personal affairs – and whether she complied with the Nolan principles (seven ethical standards) for public life.

The backdrop to this is a growing row over the government’s position on net migration – with new figures due out on Thursday – and Tory unhappiness over a speech Braverman gave on the issue last week, which saw the Home Secretary accused of being on leadership manoeuvres. In a sign that tensions are starting to spill out into the open, the Guardian reports tonight that Braverman has had a strained relationship of late with Chief Whip Simon Hart. As I write in the magazine this week, there are some in Downing Street who find the Home Secretary a handful; her speech last week did little to help. But she does have support. No. 10’s deputy chief of staff Will Tanner – a former Home Office aide – spoke in favour of tighter immigration policy (what Braverman championed in her speech) before he entered Downing Street.

Sunak is returning from a positive summit on the world stage to domestic trouble back in Westminster. Inside government, the story is viewed as unhelpful, but the jury’s out on whether it really counts as career-ending. There are plenty of Tory MPs who would like Braverman out of the cabinet – with MPs on the left of the party taking issue with her rhetoric and seeing her as unruly. However, there are many MPs to the right who would view the departure of Braverman as proof Sunak was going soft on the key issue of immigration. It means that, whatever next step Sunak takes, he is likely to anger one wing of his party. After a bumpy few weeks for Tory unity in the aftermath of disappointing local election results, losing a Home Secretary would be a brave move.