The far-right Alternative für Deutschland party is set to make history and take control of at least one of Germany’s state parliaments for the first time. According to exit polls released on Sunday, the AfD is on course to become the largest party in the state of Thuringia.
While the final results of the election are unlikely to be confirmed before tomorrow, the AfD is predicted to win at least 30 per cent of the vote in the state. One projection by the pollster Infratest Dimap places the party’s vote share at 30.5 per cent, while a poll conducted on behalf of the state broadcaster ZDF puts the party on a slightly higher 33.5 per cent. Either of these results would mean the AfD taking around 30 seats in the state’s 88-seat parliament – making it the largest party but still substantially short of the 45 seats needed to form an overall majority.
If these exit polls bear out, Thuringia’s state election will be devastating for the national government’s traffic light coalition. Olaf Scholz’s SPD only just squeaked over the 5 per cent threshold needed to gain any seats, with 6.5 per cent of the vote. While Scholz’s coalition partners, the Greens and Free Democratic party (FDP), are both set to be thrown out of Thuringia’s parliament with approximately 4 per cent and 1 per cent of the vote each. The election’s other big winner appears to be the left-wing populist Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), formed just over eight months ago, which has clinched at least 14 per cent of the vote.
The AfD’s challenge now is to convince one or more of the other successful parties to enter into a governing coalition with them.
This may prove difficult. The right-wing CDU party is projected to come in second with approximately 24.5 per cent of the vote and has consistently ruled out allying with the AfD. In a statement following the exit polls, the party once again confirmed that ‘there will be no cooperation with the AfD’.
If the AfD fails to form a coalition, the party may be forced to give way to a minority government formed by their opponents. In this scenario, their ambition to propel their regional leader Björn Höcke to the position of state president will certainly falter.
In the state elections for Saxony, meanwhile, victory for the AfD is by no means assured. The exit polls suggest that the party has drawn almost level with the incumbent CDU, but could lose to them by as little as 0.6 per cent. The CDU is predicted to gain at least 31.6 per cent of the vote, with the AfD forecast to take somewhere between 30.2 per cent and 31.3 per cent. These results mean that both parties are on course to win 43 parliamentary seats out of 120. Given that here, too, the AfD’s opponents have stated that they will not enter into coalition with the party, this suggests the CDU will be able to successfully form an alliance to keep the party out of power.
In Saxony as well, the BSW was a big winner of the night, taking at least 11.6 per cent of the vote. The coalition government did better in Saxony, with both the SPD and Greens both managing to gain seats, although the FDP failed to win even 3 per cent of the vote.
As constituency results begin to filter in overnight from both states, a clearer picture will emerge as to where exactly the surge of support for the AfD and the new BSW is coming from. Voter demographics will also reveal whether the AfD’s claim to be the ‘party of the young’ continues to bear out.
One thing that is already certain is that the AfD will do its best to keep this foothold on power. As the conversation begins to turn to alliances and ruling coalitions, we can expect the party to fight tough – and dirty. Saxony and Thuringia are in for a tumultuous start to the new week.
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