The benefit cap is a key test of compassionate Conservatism

David Cameron and Nick Clegg’s railways announcement wasn’t the only attempt today by the coalition to bounce back from the strife of the past few weeks. Iain Duncan Smith also chose to point to another area where the Government is delivering on voters’ demands: welfare.

In an op-ed in the Daily Mail, the Work and Pensions Secretary said the £26,000 benefit cap for workless families, which is one of the government’s most popular policies, is already effecting the behavioural change ministers hoped it would, with a third of claimants saying they are going to look for a job in order to avoid the cap, which comes into effect in 2013.

In some ways, this is an example of how the Coalition has worked well, although it is slightly undermined by the fact that the Liberal Democrats made a great deal of noise about the policy at the time, with their peers backing significant amendments to it in the House of Lords. It is also interesting that Duncan Smith chose to write this piece, given he was also initially opposed to the cap. The idea came from the Treasury, and the Work and Pensions secretary did have significant concerns about its effects on homelessness.

His piece today shows that ministers realise the importance of a strong offer on welfare to keep voters on side. Backbench MPs are desperate for evidence to show their constituents that welfare cuts are having the desired effect, rather than causing the homelessness that campaigners – and ministers such as Eric Pickles – have warned about. They also see it as a policy that could produce real fruit in time for the 2015 election, where the Conservatives could include in their manifesto a pledge to lower the cap still further, arguing that the £26,000 has worked out as planned.

The key test for the government when the cap does come in is whether it demonstrates the compassionate conservatism that Duncan Smith set out to model when he started as Work and Pensions Secretary, encouraging people back into work. The converse would be that it kicks those who are already down, complicating complicated lives still further, and costing the state a pretty penny when it picks up homeless families and pays the fees for their expensive temporary accommodation.

The obvious problem with this statistic from the minister today is that it means there are two thirds of households affected by the benefit cap who have not said they are looking for a job. That is still a significant proportion of the 56,000 households that the DWP now estimates will be affected.

The department’s own equality impact assessment, which it published last year, found that 60 per cent of those who will see their benefits cut under the cap are single females, many of whom will be lone parents. Being a single mother doesn’t mean you can’t work, of course, but it could make things a darn sight harder, and how families like these are supported will be a real test of whether this is compassionate Conservatism in action.

It’s also worth noting that the updated impact assessment that the DWP published today has revised down the number of families affected. In January it estimated 67,000 households would see a cut in their entitlement in 2013/14: today’s report suggests 56,000. This is partly because of a nine-month grace period that has been introduced for households who become eligible for the cap because of sudden unemployment. That modification is helpful – and compassionate – because it doesn’t plunge a family off a cliff all of a sudden and gives them time to adjust their lives.

If the cap fits, then it’ll be a triumph for the Conservatives in 2015, and something to prod Labour and Lib Dems with in front of voters. But it’s too early to claim victory when it hasn’t even come into action.