The betting scandal spells trouble for Sunak

Is the Tory campaign cursed? After Rishi Sunak battled through the pouring rain when he called the election, suffered the return of Nigel Farage and then walked into a major D-Day gaffe, the party is under pressure once again. This time, the Tories are under fire over bets placed on the date of the election by Conservative aides and candidates. Nick Mason, the party’s chief data officer, is the fourth Tory (so far) to be investigated by the gambling commission (he denies any wrongdoing). It means Tory candidates on the media round are once again being asked about bets on the election – and why Sunak has not sacked all those allegedly involved. This morning Chris Heaton Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, accused Labour of applying undue pressure on the Gambling Commission to investigate, arguing it is a case of innocent until proven guilty.

While the line from the Prime Minister’s team is that the commission must be given the space to investigate, Tory candidates worry the latest scandal to dog the campaign is cutting through on the doorstep. As one candidate puts it: ‘It’s one of those simple things that everyone can understand is wrong and plays to fears that the Prime Minister is too weak.’ The scandal is one of the reasons, as we enter the last full week of campaigning before polling day, that Conservatives are rather downbeat about their chances of significantly moving the polls between now and 4 July.

The hope in Conservative Campaign Headquarters is that the situation on the ground is a little less bad than the polls suggest. Both Labour and the Tories see Wednesday’s BBC election debate – which will be chaired by Mishal Husain – as one of the last big chances to win over undecided voters. For Keir Starmer, the aim is simply not to slip up or leave space for any Tory attacks.

Sunak’s approach is two-pronged. First, he wants to reduce Labour’s vote share (there are already signs in the polls that it has fallen since the election was called). The Tories believe doubling down on their tax attacks is the best way to do this. Second, Sunak is aiming to persuade voters considering switching to Reform to think again. This is viewed as the harder challenge on the grounds that, in the words of one Tory staffer, these voters tend to be ‘furious with us’. It means the Tories are looking for a way to ask these voters to hold their noses and back them one more time to avoid a Labour super-majority – and the risks that could come with it, such as on migration. The Tories have also latched onto comments Farage made about Ukraine – in the hope it will put off some voters from switching. Expect Sunak’s performance on Wednesday to be predicated on these points.