Power, or the expectation of it, has a transformative effect on political parties. It was draining from the Labour party at its conference in Brighton last week, just as obviously as it was rushing towards the Conservatives in Manchester this week. Gordon Brown sounded angry and shrill, saying nothing about how he would tackle the deficit. His was a strategy for opposition. The Conservatives provided leadership — talking about public sector pay freezes. They were listened to with the respect afforded a government-in-waiting. This was the objective of the conference, and it was clearly achieved.
What we learned in Manchester, primarily, was the way in which a Conservative government will set about remedying the public finances. George Osborne made clear that the perception of his cuts agenda is crucial to its success. The slogan ‘we’re all in this together’ has become a fiscal strategy: whatever happens must be seen to be fair. The rich must be seen to suffer, as the axe is wielded elsewhere. Without popular support, Mr Osborne believes, the government will not be able to tackle the deficit.
There is something to be said for this strategy. But there is nothing to be said for Mr Osborne’s lazy decision to adopt Mr Brown’s 50p tax on the super-rich. Such is the emphasis on the political attractions of this tax that it is unlikely that the Conservatives have done proper research on just how much money it will lose. Had Mr Osborne found his own way of hitting the rich — rather than simply copying Labour’s ruse — he would have demonstrated fairness and raised money. His failure to do so represents a missed opportunity. If the rich leave in the numbers that recent data suggests they will, then it could be the Conservatives’ single most expensive policy failure.
But one should not judge the shadow chancellor on what he has laid out this week. Our political editor, James Forsyth, reveals on page 10 that a far more advanced and promising agenda is being prepared behind the scenes. There are signs that, as this magazine has recommended, the tax rises will come from VAT and the recovering bank sector. The growth agenda (conspicuously absent from this week’s conference) may come in the form of aggressive corporation tax cuts.
Michael Gove’s school reform agenda, strengthened this week, is now the most compelling single reason to vote Conservative. A voucher system means that new schools can be set up, with pupils worth around £5,000 to teach, and is a system we have argued for. Children from deprived families will be worth more. Crucially, it now looks likely that the new schools will be able to run for profit — as Anders Hultin, the architect of the Swedish system, argued in this magazine last week. This may come in the form of a ‘management fee’. But if this happens, then Britain’s obsession with the quality of schools could blossom into an education industry.
There remain several areas where the Conservatives need to do much more thinking. The lack of any meaningful progress on welfare reform is disconcerting: the purportedly radical proposals laid out this week look suspiciously similar to the government’s own policy. The difference is that no one, now, takes Labour policies seriously. What Labour plans to do in the year 2011 is no longer regarded as relevant. Everyone, from the media to the civil service, is now looking to the Conservatives for leadership — and this week the party provided it. The main achievement of the Tory conference this week is to turn the page of British politics. The election may be seven months away, but we are already in the Cameron era.
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