One thing is keeping the temperature among Tory MPs in check: the government’s poll lead. It’s hard to claim that this or that event has been an election losing disaster when the opposition is still behind.
The explanation for why the Tories are ahead despite such a torrid summer holds the key to what will happen this autumn, as I argue in the magazine this week. To one of those involved with the Tories’ 2019 election victory, the answer is obvious: the party has a core vote of 30 per cent to which it has added another 10 per cent who are Brexit enthusiasts.
This analysis would encourage the Tories to prioritise their Brexit coalition. They would not want to give any ammunition to those who are eager to cry ‘Brexit betrayed’ at any deal. They would want to avoid spurring the creation of a new party dedicated to pushing for a total Brexit and a more vigorous approach to the culture war, the small boats crossing the Channel and the like.
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