The end of Assad

After weeks of violence, the end of the Assad regime is now inevitable. It may take weeks, months or years, but the kind of damage that President Assad has inflicted on his domestic credibility and international standing cannot be repaired. The country’s two most populous cities, Aleppo and the capital Damascus have remained calm, but now protesters are defying the army. More than 300 members of the governing party have resigned and publicly condemned the crackdown. Crucially, the army’s loyalty is now in doubt. It is said some military units have refused to quell the protesters in Damascus.

Even Syria’s long-time ally Turkey has been angered by the violence that has sent more than 4,000 Syrians streaming across the border and killed more than a 1000 protesters, most of the unarmed. A Turkish spokesman said what many in the West feel when he accused the Assad regime of “savagery”. And in an interview last month Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan described the protesters as in a “fight for freedom”.

For now, there is little the West can do directly. There is no military solution to the crisis and comparisons between Libya and Syria are facile. Further, the fears of Syria’s violent break-up in a conflict that might involve Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah and Israel are real. However, the situation has now deteriorated to an extent where it is clear that President Assad will murder anyone to stay in power. The British government should therefore not only push for a UN resolution condemning his actions as it currently is doing, but look to refer the Syrian leadership to the International Criminal Court — the crimes perpetrated by the Assad regime have now reached the point where the qualify as crimes against humanity.

Then it is time to impose Iran-style sanctions on Syria. Until now, sanctions have been limited, partly because many believed Bashar al-Assad could be persuaded to change course. It is clear he will not and time to make it clear that there is no future for a Syria run by Assad.

To start off, a high-level group of ex-leaders should travel to Syria to make this point. At the same time, NATO officers should reach out to Syrian military leadership and lay out what kind of deal may be on the table if they toppled President Assad. To pile on additional pressure, Britain should work with Turkey and Jordan to help the Syrian opposition organise a government-in-exile, which can represent a new, modern and hopeful future for the country.