Donald Trump may have pulled the world in a decidedly protectionist direction, but the European Union is not doing its part to lead by example and uphold the ideals of free trade – not even with Ukraine, where the strategic case for free and frictionless trade is overwhelming.
On 6 June, the EU is expected to end the existing tariff-free regime introduced after the Russian invasion, subjecting Ukrainian imports of agricultural commodities to very tight caps, as stipulated by the earlier Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) between the EU and Ukraine. The DCFTA was supposed to be revised by the June deadline, ideally increasing the quotas for tariff-free imports of agricultural products, but the negotiations have stalled for political reasons, for fear that they would disturb Poland’s politics ahead of its presidential election.
Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU – wheat, corn, and poultry, among others – skyrocketed after the invasion. The share of Ukrainian wheat exported to the EU, for example, went up from around 2 per cent before the war to over 50 per cent in 2023, in part because of the disruption of exports from Odesa to countries of the Middle East and Africa.
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