The tightening looks on. On Tuesday, my polling firm JL Partners published its first campaign poll showing a 12-point Labour lead, down from 15 points at the start of May and 18 points in April. Our data scientist, Callum Hunter, has written for The Spectator on why we are confident our methodology is the right one. We will need to see in our next poll whether the trend continues or stalls.
But there are reasons in the data to believe the Tories have more support to pick up. Reform is still on 12 per cent, and around four in ten (37 per cent) say they would consider voting for the Conservatives. Sunak has gradually climbed vis-à-vis Starmer with over-65s to a 23-point lead and is drawing closer with men (Labour currently has a 5-point lead): both groups that are more likely to consist of Reform voters.
If the Tories win Reform voters over directly, they are likely to do better among the voters who say they do not know who to vote for. Our model predicts that 30 per cent of the current undecideds will split for Reform UK. If that comes down, it benefits the Conservatives too.
But tightening could come with a twist: it could benefit Labour. In the same poll, almost half (47 per cent) of current Liberal Democrat voters say they would consider voting for the Labour party.
This is the statistic that should terrify Tory HQ. If the race tightens, Liberal Democrats could be squeezed by Labour just as Reform will be squeezed by the Tories. They could lend their votes to Starmer to keep the Tories out, especially if they feel the race is competitive.
That more than offsets the Reform voters ready to consider the Tories: the respective group sizes are 1.5 million to 1.4 million. If the Tories can squeeze Reform they could shore up their vote, but the Labour lead might not change. Tory champagne bottles will remain unopened.
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