The survivor: how much longer can Boris Johnson keep going?

On Tuesday night, after apologising again to the House of Commons for breaking lockdown rules, Boris Johnson addressed a private meeting of Tory MPs. He had a message for his critics: ‘This is the beginning of the end.’ ‘For a minute, I thought he was talking about himself,’ says one MP. In fact, the Prime Minister was referring to his belief that the biggest political scandal of his premiership is reaching its finale – one in which he comes out on top.

Some of the MPs in attendance struggled to see much to be optimistic about. Johnson subjected the country to draconian lockdown rules which the police have found he did not observe, making him the first prime minister in history to admit to breaking the law while in office. He had promised the House of Commons that he had not broken any rules, so now the opposition parties are plotting ways to maximise pain for the Tories over whether he knowingly misled the house: a resigning offence. Labour enjoys a consistent poll lead – and is even ahead as the party of low taxation. One forecast projects a loss of 800 Conservative council seats in next month’s local elections.

And yet, despite all this, things are not as bad for Johnson as they were three months ago, when MPs were on the brink of reaching 54 letters of no confidence and triggering a vote on his leadership. In recent weeks, more MPs have retracted their calls for him to go – including the Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross. ‘I think Boris has got away with it,’ says a former minister. ‘The most likely scenario now is that he leads us into the next election. But what happens then, no one knows.’

The Tories are about seven points behind in the polls, but David Cameron and John Major would have killed for such a narrow gap at the same time in their premierships.