On Monday night the Conservatives announced the rules of the party’s leadership contest. The reaction in Labour circles was incredulity that their run of good luck has not yet ended. ‘A three-month contest?’ asked one amazed party figure. Are there any candidates who Keir Starmer’s team fears? ‘I doubt the next Tory prime minister is in this parliamentary party,’ replied a senior Labour politician.
The decision to delay picking a new leader until November means Starmer’s government will be, in effect, unopposed as it holds its party conference and then its first Budget. The Tories will be a danger only to each other. Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt will go through the motions of opposition, but neither will pack much punch, given that they’ll soon be on the backbenches.
The lengthy schedule is designed to allow time to heal old wounds and avoid rushing into a decision MPs later regret. ‘The idea of having two leaders by the next election will just underline our reputation for deranged regicide,’ says one probable candidate. ‘We need to stop the spasms.’ But a prolonged contest risks months of civil war. Done badly, it could reinforce the idea that the Tories are more concerned with navel-gazing and in-fighting than listening to voters.
The new timetable, asserted by backbenchers against the advice of Sunak’s allies and Tory board members, means the result will be announced three days before the US election. ‘It’s the moment we want maximum publicity,’ says one MP, ‘but Trump will blow us out the water.’ Leadership hopefuls face a summer touring Conservative associations rather than sunnier climes.
Officially, candidate teams have made a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ for a non-aggression pact. The truce is particularly advocated by Kemi Badenoch’s allies because she is currently the bookies’ favourite, and the frontrunner is typically roughed up by everyone in the first stages of a Tory campaign. The idea of the combative Badenoch calling for a summer ceasefire has raised some smiles, but there is still a consensus among Tories that it would be good for the party to focus on attacking Labour rather than each other. Judging from the past few years, that seems rather optimistic.
While MPs brace for surprise entrants, the real focus is on reaching a choice of four who would take centre stage at the party conference in October. The playing field will be whittled down by MPs in September, but the favourites are already clear.
‘It is Kemi’s to lose,’ says one MP. Her allies argue she should have won last time: she led some polls of party members, though MPs prevented her from reaching the final two candidates. She may pitch herself as a candidate of the right who can appeal to the centre (as evidenced by Michael Gove backing her last time). Her supporters are aware that the rival campaigns have an incentive to stop her reaching the membership vote.
‘Kemi has a good chance but like Boris in 2019 her biggest problem is the MPs,’ says a party figure. ‘Some of them find her a bit blunt and those who don’t like her think she’s easiest to stop in the parliamentary rounds.’ Badenoch also has to contend with the publication of the Michael Ashcroft biography, which her supporters fear will be muck-raking. ‘I’ve been assured it’s not Call Me Dave,’ says a relieved backer, in reference to Ashcroft’s infamous claim that David Cameron had relations with a pig’s head.
Her stiffest competition may come from Robert Jenrick. Once dubbed ‘Robert Generic’ by unkind colleagues, the former Home Office minister has been reinventing himself. He was Sunak’s best friend in politics, until they fell out over the Rwanda Bill. Jenrick resigned saying the new plan was legally doomed. He now feels vindicated.
‘I doubt the next Tory
prime minister is in
this parliamentary party’
Jenrick has continued to move to the right (especially on immigration) and may even trump his former Home Office boss Suella Braverman for right-wing endorsements. He has a large team working behind the scenes, complete with ‘desks, sockets, Diet Coke, snacks, even art on the walls’, according to one supporter. Donors are rolling in too. It’s a subject of debate what the spending cap for the contest will be, but Jenrick’s supporters are the ‘spend big’ camp. ‘Given the party is running out of money, it’s an important skill to show you can bring in money,’ says one backer. Although he’s on the right of the party, Jenrick will pitch himself as a true centrist whose tendency to speak tough on immigration only matches public sentiment. He is expected to shortly embark on a ‘Listening to Britain’ tour of the four nations. If he reaches the final two, his team believe they could challenge Badenoch.
Tom Tugendhat, a former soldier who ran last time, has been releasing endorsements from MPs who have lost their seats to show he has widespread support. He also has plenty of endorsements from current MPs ready to go, say those involved. Then there’s James Cleverly, who’s pitching himself as the great unifier. ‘He might be our least-worst option,’ says a former minister. Priti Patel is in the running as well, with fans in what remains of the Boris camp and Team Truss. Even some of Sunak’s inner circle speak admiringly of the former home secretary.
Despite promises of best behaviour, MPs worry things could degenerate fast. ‘I think it will turn into in-fighting quickly which is why I think we should have gone for it more quickly,’ says one. Tory grandees have looked to 2005 for inspiration, when favourite David Davis perished with a dull speech at the conference and a shiny new David Cameron emerged. Michael Howard, who chose his shadow cabinet to give new candidates a chance to sparkle, presided over the process. But Sunak – who will still be in post as leader of the opposition – is expected to make only a brief appearance at conference, which may underline the idea of no one being really in charge.
The former PM is more than ready to hand over, but he agreed to stay on far longer than he planned once MPs had rejected his supporters’ advice: that the longer rebuilding is delayed, the less there may be to rebuild.
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