Today’s papers are splashed with good news on the pace of the vaccine rollout, with over-70s now being invited for a jab. However, the issue currently causing angst in the Tory party is universal credit. Last week, Labour attacked the government over free school meals, today they will put the government under pressure over the universal credit uplift. At the start of the pandemic in April last year, Rishi Sunak increased the payment by £20 a week.
The issue of whether that increase will continue will be discussed at opposition day debate this evening. Boris Johnson is being urged to extend the benefit increase beyond 31 March when it is currently set to come to an end. This is an idea that has won support with many Tory MPs. The Northern Research Group — of over 50 MPs including some in red wall seats — have called on the Chancellor to extend the uplift. A number of right-leaning think tanks have also argued in favour of an extension, suggesting it would help with promises to ‘level up’ the regions.
What is currently lacking in government is a clear sense of what areas should be prioritised when it comes to funding
However, Rishi Sunak is reluctant to make any decision just yet. While DWP Secretary Therese Coffey is thought to be in favour of extending the uplift (it will be her junior Will Quince speaking in the chamber this afternoon), figures in the Treasury are concerned that extending it could mean the increase stops being a temporary emergency measure and becomes permanent spending. This is why the preferred option in No. 11 is a one-off £500 payment. Officials insist no final decision has been made and point to uncertainty over coronavirus as a reason to wait to make the decision ahead of March’s budget.
Today’s vote is not binding and is unlikely to see too much Tory unrest. The Prime Minister has told MPs they can simply abstain — only a handful of Tory MPs have said that they will vote for the motion regardless. Tory supporters of the uplift still believe its a battle they may be able to win when it comes to convincing the Prime Minister — if not the Chancellor.
The differences of opinion points to a growing problem for the government when it comes to spending decisions. It’s not so much whether the universal credit uplift ought to be extended — there are plenty of arguments in favour of it. But what is currently lacking in government, and the Tory party more generally, is a clear sense of what areas should be prioritised when it comes to funding.
As the NRG urge the Chancellor to approve the uplift, Shire Tories are voicing their concern over reports that Sunak could hike corporation tax in the March budget. Given Sunak believes it’s not ‘morally right to keep borrowing at these levels’ and that the government cannot rely on interest rates remaining low — as he made clear in an interview with The Spectator in December — something is going to have to give.
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