There are only some seven weeks left for connections to get their horses qualified for the 2024 Randox Grand National. This year it will be harder than ever to get a run in the Aintree marathon, with just 34 runners, instead of the usual 40, for safety reasons.
That means a horse will need an official rating of around 147 to be almost certain of getting into the race when the weights are announced in mid-February. Tomorrow there are at least two horses who will be looking to win the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (Haydock 1.30 p.m.) and not just for the £26,000 first prize.
Borders trainer and jockey team Stuart Coltherd and his son, Sam, are keen to run their eight-year-old gelding COOPER’S CROSS in the Grand National on 13 April. However, he is currently only rated 136 which means he would need to win handsomely tomorrow to leap up 10lbs or more in the ratings.
The horse ran very modestly on his re-appearance at Aintree in the BoyleSports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase last month, finishing eighth of the nine finishers and clearly needing his first run of the campaign over a distance well short of his best.
However, he ran some big races last season, notably when runner-up to the well-handicapped Kitty’s Light in the Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr. That was on good ground but his handler has always insisted he is not ground dependent and goes equally well on very soft going too. I like the fact that he can be backed at 12-1 each way, three places, so that’s the suggested bet with BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes or Betfred.
Lambourn handler Warren Greatrex is also keen to get his stable star BILL BAXTER up significantly in the ratings so that he, too, can run in the Grand National. The horse certainly handled the Aintree brush fences with aplomb when he won the Randox-sponsored Topham Handicap Chase in April, defeating 28 other runners in the process.
Bill Baxter will need to jump better tomorrow than he did last time out in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury but he will be much better suited by tomorrow’s softer ground. Back him at 8-1 each way too with Sky Bet, BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes or Betfred, in a race in which every runner is in with a “shout”.
I covered the Betfair Exchange Trophy in my column from two weeks ago so I am pleased that the race has cut up. I put up Altobelli each way at 12-1, four places. and he is now a top priced 5-1. However, we have been here twice in the past fortnight with big-race favourites, put up at juicy prices, which then bombed on the day so I am hoping not to get the hattrick tomorrow.
Altobelli and all the other runners will need to be on their A-game to beat the favourite, Iberico Lord, who, given time, is going to prove to be much better than his current rating of 134. It wouldn’t surprise me, in fact, if he turned into a Grade 1 horse capable of running in a Champion Hurdle.
The Grade 1 Ladbrokes King George VI Chase on Boxing Day (Kempton 2.30 p.m.) is a tricky affair with lots of horses running below their best recently or having other question marks hanging over them. On balance, I am going to watch and enjoy the race without having any money down.
For my one bet of the day on Boxing Day, I prefer to look towards calmer waters and I like the chances of ES PERFECTO in theLadbrokes Boost Your Odds On Racing Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Kempton, 12.45 p.m.). He had no chance at the weights on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham last month against the Paul Nicholls’ improver Ginny’s Destiny and he could easily go one better here. Take the 10-1 on offer, three places, with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair in a race that will end up with 11 or less runners.
The Coral Welsh Grand National (Chepstow 2.50 p.m., 27 December) is my favourite jumps handicap of the season and I am happy to leave it at the two tips that I have already put up: Iron Bridge each way at 16-1 and Super Survivor win only at 8-1. Rivals such as Nassalam and Autonomous Cloud are big dangers but you can’t back them all.
In Ireland on the same day, I expect Panda Boy to run a huge race in the Paddy Power Chase (Leopardstown, 3 p.m.), provided the ground is not too soft. However, he has been found in the market and I wouldn’t dream of backing him in such a big field at odds of 7-1 or shorter.
I am even more intrigued by the Grade 1 Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle run the next day (Leopardstown, 1.50 p.m., 28 December) over nearly three miles. I can see the winner of this being a big player in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March.
In fact, I am hoping Home By The Lee, trained by Joseph O’Brien, sees off the challenge of the improving Irish Point, trained by Gordon Elliott.
This Leopardstown contest is another non-betting race for me but I can’t resist backing HOME BY THE LEE each wayfor the Stayers’ Hurdle on March 14 at a stand out 28-1 with Sky Bet. If you don’t have a Sky Bet account, the 25-1 with most other bookies is worth taking too.
I have watched a re-run of last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle several times and each time I can’t believe that Home By The Lee finished less than four lengths behind the winner in fifth place, given his horrendous mistake at the sixth hurdle.
But for that error he could actually have won and so 28-1 is a generous price because he will almost certainly contest the race again if he remains injury free. There was nothing wrong with his seasonal debut at Navan last month given he was giving the two talented horses that beat him all of 9lbs each.
Anyway, there is some truly wonderful racing to enjoy on both sides of the Irish Sea over the next week. A merry – and prosperous – Christmas to all Penworthy’s followers and my thanks to regular readers for their canny input into the Comments’ section throughout 2023.
2023-4 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Cooper’s Cross at 12-1 for the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Bill Baxter at 8-1 for the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Altobelli at 12-1 in the Betfair Exchange Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 pointe each way Es Perfecto at 10-1 in the Ladbrokes Boost Your Odds On Racing Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Iron Bridge at 16-1 for the Welsh Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places.
2 points win Super Survivor at 8-1 for the Welsh Grand National.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Home By the Lee at 28-1 for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
Settled bets from last week:
2 points win Gin Coco at 9-2 in the bet365 Handicap Hurdle. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Thunder Rock at 10-1 for the December Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Frero Banbou at 12-1 for the for the December Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, four places. 3rd. + 1.4 points.
1 point each way In Excelsis Deo at 10-1 for the December Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, four places. Non-runner. – 2 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: -7.05 points.
2023 flat season: -48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: +54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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