The Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase at Cheltenham over more than two and a half miles on Sunday is a hugely competitive affair.
There are no less than six horses in this race from my ‘horse tracker’ – horses that have caught my eye for one reason or another recently and that I expect to back in future.
The key to the outcome of the race is the going and, if the weather forecast is correct, the course could have up to 20 millimetres of rain tomorrow. That could easily turn the ground from ‘good’ to ‘soft’, which would be welcome news for some runners and bad news for others.
Deyrann de Carjac is a horse that I am convinced will win a big handicap at some point but he likes ground conditions akin to the M5 motorway, so I am happy to overlook him on the basis that the weather forecast is accurate. Stolen Silver is another runner who would prefer the ground to remain quick.
Shakem Up’Arry, War Lord and Happygolucky will all welcome the arrival of the wet stuff but they aretrading at largely single figure odds so I will, reluctantly in some cases, pass them by too.
The most likely winner of the race is MIDNIGHT RIVER, who is vying for favouritism with Il Ridoto. Dan Skelton’s seven-year-old gelding ran a cracker to be third at this course in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month. That top run was despite him making one bad jumping error and having the ground much faster than he likes.
Soft ground would be perfect for him so I am going to be bold and suggest 2 points win at 5-1 with Skybet.
However, the horse that could prove to be good value each way is COCONUT SPLASH, who has been nibbled at in the market earlier today.
I am a huge fan of the horse’s trainer Evan Williamsand I am convinced he has been lining up this eight-year-old gelding for a big pot off a potentially lenient mark of 132. His official rating gives him a lovely racing weight of 10 stone 5 lbs this weekend.
Back him at 12-1 with William Hill or Skybet, both paying six places, rather than at slightly bigger odds with another bookie paying just four places.
I also fancy a horse at Newbury tomorrow where the ground is also likely to be ‘soft’ by the off. GRUMPY CHARLEY comes from the Devon yard of Chris Honour who does well with his limited resources.
This seven-year-old gelding is down to a nice mark of 135 and has good winning form at Newbury on soft ground from a year ago. Back him each way at 12-1 with BetVictor, paying five places, in the Newbury 2.25pm.
We had two near misses – second at 20-1 and third at 12-1 in the Coral Welsh Grand National – for a modest profit in the race. Onwards and upwards as we enter 2023, and a happy New Year to all my readers.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25pm on Saturday, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55pm race on Sunday, with Skybet.
1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55 on Sunday, with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places.
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
Settled:
1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7th). – 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.
1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.Unplaced (4th). – 2 points.
1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2nd. + 3 points.
1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places. 3rd. + 2 points.
2022-3 jumps season, running total + 1 point.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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