Tories’ thoughts are turning to defeat

Ever since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, his aides have worried that May would be the month of mutiny. His mandate over the party has always been weak, since he lost the summer’s leadership race to Liz Truss. He was also certain to preside over heavy losses in the local elections, so the aftermath of that defeat was seen as the ideal time for a rebel to strike. As if to tempt fate, Sunak invited more than 200 Tory MPs for drinks in the No. 10 garden on Monday night. He attempted to lift spirits with jokes at Keir Starmer’s expense.

‘He was meant to be writing a book about his ideas for Britain,’ Sunak said. ‘But – and I’m not making this up – he has had to return the advance to the publisher because he couldn’t come up with any.’ His guests laughed, but a few grumbled that Sunak himself gives a good impression of someone running out of ideas.

As disgruntled as some Tory MPs might be, there is nothing approaching mutiny in the backbenches. Even the whispers about a Boris Johnson restoration have fallen silent. Johnson was notably absent at the inaugural meeting of the Conservative Democratic Organisation, a pro-Boris group, on Friday night. One MP says the venue was a third full. ‘It was more of a postmortem of the past 12 years than a rally for his return,’ says one attendee. For now, at least, Sunak’s hold over the party is assured.

Yet the results of this month’s elections confirm what bookmakers say: that the Tories are on course for defeat. Attention is turning to what will come next for the surviving Tory MPs in the event of a Conservative loss next year.