It is usually the Grand National at Aintree that throws up a delightful human interest story for the media to relish. Think Devon Loch throwing away the race when poised to win for the Queen Mother in 1956, Foinavon’s 100-1 victory in 1967, Red Rum winning his third National in 1977 and former crock Aldaniti and cancer-suffering jockey Bob Champion’s triumph in 1981. I could go on and on…but I won’t.
Tomorrow I am hoping that it is the turn of the Betfred Derby (Epsom 1.30 p.m.) to produce a story to tug at the heartstrings when two horses, which I believe represent the best bets in the race, would each lead to a first-rate news story if they won.
Victory for SPREWELL in the country’s most prestigious flat race of the season would be a dream come true for Irish trainer Jessica Harrington after her eight-month battle with breast cancer, which has included several rounds of chemotherapy.
Sprewell’s jockey Shane Foley said recently of Harrington, 76: ‘There is one word for that woman – legend.’ His description is spot on: she had won virtually every big race over jumps, with the exception of the Grand National, and she has had plenty of success on the flat too.
Harrington has been no less of a legend in her battle against cancer. She said recently of her illness: ‘I wasn’t going to let it get the better of me. You have to get up in a positive mood every morning and realise how lucky you are. I’m so lucky: I live in a lovely place, I look at these horses every day and, when I come out to the gallops and look at that view towards the Wicklow mountains, I always say to myself, What have I got to complain about?’ Yes, she is brave as well as classy.
Sprewell represents Harrington’s best ever chance of winning the Derby, having showed vastly improved form as a three-year-old after two modest runs as a two-year-old. He has won both his races this season, notably landing the Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown by three lengths last month. That run over 1 mile 2 furlongs suggested a step up to 1 mile and a half will suit him even more as he hit the line hard.
Sprewell has been my fancy for the Derby for several weeks but I did not put him up antepost because I feared he might not make the line-up if the ground stayed quick. All his best form to date has been on either ‘soft’ or ‘heavy’ going. It does not mean he will not be able to run well on ground certain to be ‘good’ or faster but it is far from guaranteed.
Exactly the same sentiments apply to ARREST, the other horse in the race that would throw up a touching story for the media. John and Thady Gosden’s colt will be ridden by Frankie Dettori, who is currently on a ‘farewell tour’ after announcing that this season will be his last as a jockey.
Dettori, who is 52 and has won more than 500 Group races, will try to win his third Derby tomorrow in his final ride in the race. It would be a wonderful way for the charismatic Italian to start to bring down the curtain on his glittering career. Expect not just the traditional ‘flying dismount’ but also plenty of tears if Dettori is victorious.
Arrest, like Sprewell, has shown his best form on soft ground but he, too, is an improving horse and, if he does handle the faster going, the colt will have a huge chance of winning tomorrow. The horse did, at least, win a modest race at Sandown last season on ‘good to firm’ ground.
He is certain to stay the trip having won the Group 3 Boodles Chester Vase Stakes by more than six lengths last month over the Derby distance, despite being heavily eased close to the winning line.
The favourite for tomorrow’s race is Auguste Rodin, who is just the sort of horse I never back: a ‘talking horse’ from a big yard. Of course, he could win for his talented connections, who continue to herald him as a special horse.
However, he was too short a price in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket last month when he flopped beating only two of the 14 runners home when sent off at 13/8 favourite. He will be too short again, at around 3/1 tomorrow, given his form on the racetrack rather than his home gallops.
The Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes, run at York last month, is often the best trial for the Derby but this year the first four home were covered by just a length and a half, suggesting there was no wonder horse in the race.
Although that race was won by The Foxes, the fourth horse Passenger may reverse the form tomorrow having had a troubled passage – no pun intended – at York. Military Order has a big chance after his victory in the Fitzdares Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes but his odds of around 4-1 are not tempting.
In summary, despite my concerns over the fast ground, back both Sprewell and Arrest each way at 10-1 and 4/1 respectively, both with Sky Bet, the only bookie offering a hugely attractive five places in a 14-runner race. Sprewell is 12-1 with bet365 but the firm is offering one place less.
Finally, I can’t resist backing MOKAATIL in the Aston Martin ‘Dash’ Handicap (Epsom, Saturday 3.20 p.m.). This veteran sprinter can be inconsistent but there is no doubt that he loves Epsom’s downhill sprint track, winning the ‘Dash’ two years ago off a rating of 82 and being fourth in the race last year off a rating of 87, despite hanging to his left close to the finishing line.
He can run off a mark of 85 tomorrow and he has a fascinating jockey booking because I love a talented apprentice taking weight off a horse’s back in a big handicap. Sean D. Bowen, who claims 7 lbs, has been booked for the ride so trainer Ian Williams must think he is talented. As far as I can see, it will be only Bowen’s second ride in Britain, as he is normally based in Ireland.
Back Mokaatil each way at 14-1 with Sky Bet again, this time the bookie is paying seven places.
Mountain Peak, second in the ‘Dash’ last year from a poor draw, and Look Out Louis, ridden by last year’s winning jockey Barry McHugh, head a long list of dangers in the race.
Next week, I will be turning my attention to Royal Ascot for the first time so, once again, watch this space.
2023 flat season running total: – 2.3 points.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Sprewell at 10-1 for the Derby paying 1/5 odds, four places.
1 point each way Arrest at 4/1 for the Derby, paying 1/5 odds, four places.
1 point each way Mokaatil at 14-1 for the Epsom Dash, paying 1/5th odds, seven places.
1 point each way Zoffee at 20-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled bets:
1 point each way Royal Scotsman at 17/2 in the 2000 Guineas, 1/5 odds, paying four places. 3rd. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Call My Bluff at 4-1 in the Chester Cup, paying six places, 1/5th odds. 3rd. – 0.2 points.
1 point each way Safe Voyage at 12-1 in the Victoria Cup, paying seven places, 1/5th odds. 5th. + 1.4 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 6-1 in the Connect It Utility Services Handicap. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Royal Acclaim at 6-1 in the Temple Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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