Simon Clarke

We could be understating the ‘Kent’ Covid strain

Sir Patrick Vallance (Image: Getty)

‘Our estimate which is that the risk of death increases by 30 per cent is itself uncertain. We think it could be anywhere between 10 per cent and 50 per cent according to our analyses,’ said Dr Nick Davies, the author of one of the studies referenced in Friday’s Downing Street press conference, during an interview on Radio 4.

Between listening to the press conference last night and Dr Nick Davies, you could be forgiven for thinking that this latest development is all rather tentative and possibly merely a quirk of statistics that is – as yet – no cause for alarm. The controversial way the figures were presented; briefed to The Sun first, then announced at a press conference with the actual study released only later – may give the impression of a government spin operation design.

This, however, might be wishful thinking. There is plenty of doubt, to be sure, but it’s also possible that we have just heard an understatement of what could potentially be a dreadful situation. But does that mean it is necessarily a clear situation? No, far from it.

As we have seen many times during the course of the pandemic, it is a fluid – and quickly moving situation, one filled with lots of noisy data.

Why the uncertainty from Sir Patrick Vallance?

Sir Patrick Vallance, did not report the claim about a higher case fatality rate (CFR) as irrefutable fact. Instead, the chief scientific adviser emphasised that it was the opinion of Nervtag, the government committee which monitors risks associated with respiratory tract viruses. ‘The evidence is not yet strong,’ he said. Sir Patrick went on to explain that it had been pieced together from a ‘series of different bits of information’ and that we do not ‘have a very good estimate of its precise nature’.

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