Apologies for the confusion folks, but William Hill has sent over the actual odds for ministers to lose their seat. (What we had before was rather mangled thanks to a misunderstanding between me and them). Here are the numbers and, again, apologies.
To lose their seat:
2/7 Smith
13/2 Darling
8/1 Straw
10/1 Denham
12/1 Purnell, Hoon
14/1 Johnson, Alexander, Blears, Ed Miliband, Cooper
16/1 David Miliband, Burnham
40/1 Brown
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