What if she loses?

We are heading into uncharted waters. The great hope of No. 10 and cabinet loyalists was that once Theresa May’s Brexit plan was an international agreement, the debate would change. It wouldn’t just be the Prime Minister’s plan, but a deal between Britain and 27 other countries. They thought that this would imbue it with greater authority; that the House of Commons would embrace the deal on offer rather than opting for further uncertainty.

But that hasn’t happened. Opposition to May’s deal has hardened since Sunday’s summit. Five days of debate will now take place in the Commons and there is painfully little support for May’s plan. There is so little on the Tory benches that some junior ministers are even considering resigning so that they can speak in favour of the deal from the backbenches. They fear that without that, those opposed to the withdrawal agreement will dominate the debate.

Westminster is operating on the assumption that the government will lose the meaningful vote on 11 December, and by a quite substantial margin. This expectation has consequences. If the government is going to lose anyway, what’s the incentive for any Labour MP to enrage their party by saying they’ll back the Prime Minister? At the same time, Tory MPs are more inclined to favour their purist, rather than pragmatic, instincts.

Of course the vote has not yet actually taken place, and the past few years have taught us not to make assumptions about what will happen. Those close to May are pinning their hopes on three things. First, they hope that MPs will come to see that her plan is the only one that offers certainty. If you want to avoid no deal, the only way to be sure of doing so is to vote for this withdrawal agreement. Equally, if your worst nightmare is a second referendum with remain on the ballot paper, the only way to be certain that won’t happen is if May’s deal passes.