Rishi Sunak has passed the 100 publicly-declared supporters which, it if is converted to nominations when Sunak officially declares, will meet the threshold required to make Monday’s MPs vote. Boris Johnson (like Sunak, not yet officially declared a candidate), is somewhat behind at around 70. Penny Mordaunt, who officially declared on Friday, is further back, in the mid-20s. There are a lot of MPs yet to declare, but as things stand it is looking plausible that either Sunak is the only candidate to make the nominations threshold or that it is a Johnson vs Sunak run-off.
In that event, it seems very likely that Boris would win. Tory members were not happy that Boris was deposed, and are likely to have taken a very dim view of their chosen successor to him, Liz Truss, being so badly undermined by her own MPs through her brief and infelicitous stint in office. Sunak would have very little time to create any new message to change any minds.
If Sunak did have a message, it might have to be that he was the favourite of MPs
If Sunak did have a message, it might have to be that he was the favourite of MPs and in the end the MPs have to back the policies of whoever the leader is.
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