James Forsyth James Forsyth

What will fill the vacuum in Pakistan?

Ahmed Rashid’s Washington Post column on what happens next in Pakistan is an absolute must read. As Rashid puts it,

“The assassination of Benazir Bhutto has left a huge political vacuum at the heart of this nuclear-armed state, which appears to be slipping into an abyss of violence and Islamic extremism. The question of what happens next is almost impossible to answer, especially at a moment when Bhutto herself seemed to be the only answer.”

The West would also do well to bear in mind Rashid’s warnings about the likelihood that this crisis could break Musharraf’s grip on power:

“Musharraf may not survive the fallout of Bhutto’s death. His actions have not been honorable, and none of the political opposition is willing to sit down with him. It is unlikely that they will accept Musharraf’s continued presidency. 

If rioting and political mayhem worsen, if the opposition refuses to cooperate with Musharraf and the United States finally begins to distance itself from him, then the army may be forced to tell Musharraf to call it a day.

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