A tiresome trait of local elections is seeing every party declare victory of sorts on election night. At present, it seems only the Scottish National Party will be able to do so tomorrow. I have just had a text message from a nationalist bearing triumphant news: a YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph tomorrow puts the SNP on 37% and Labour on 31%. If YouGov’s record in Scotland is anything like as strong as its English predictions then it’s all over bar the voting.
In England, remember that in the lion’s share of the seats up for grabs the Tories are defending from a relatively high base. Last time they were contested (2003) the Tories hit 38%. This was under Iain Duncan Smith. So Cameron will be looking for a mid-40s result. In 2003, IDS took 556 council seats. This is the benchmark for Cameron to beat.
The second dimension is geographical.
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