A tiresome trait of local elections is seeing every party declare victory of sorts on election night. At present, it seems only the Scottish National Party will be able to do so tomorrow. I have just had a text message from a nationalist bearing triumphant news: a YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph tomorrow puts the SNP on 37% and Labour on 31%. If YouGov’s record in Scotland is anything like as strong as its English predictions then it’s all over bar the voting.
In England, remember that in the lion’s share of the seats up for grabs the Tories are defending from a relatively high base. Last time they were contested (2003) the Tories hit 38%. This was under Iain Duncan Smith. So Cameron will be looking for a mid-40s result. In 2003, IDS took 556 council seats. This is the benchmark for Cameron to beat.
The second dimension is geographical. The Tories need seats in the north to win a majority. They need to get back onto the map in Newcastle, Liverpool, Gateshead and Knowlsey. Abstaining Labour voters may accentuate the Tory voting share. So if the Tories fail in this – then Gordon Brown will be smiling, no matter how calamitous the Labour result.
The Tory campaign has been aimed at wooing LibDem voters (half its target seats are held by the LibDems). So if the LibDems hold on to the 22% of seats they got last time that would be a result.
Cameron’s game is catching falling Labour votes. I was in Rugby today with Mr Cameron – and one of the Tory councillors told me he’d just been to see someone who said he’d vote BNP or not at all. Luckily for them, the BNP are not standing. But look out for minority parties doing better than the 2% they scored last time around. If it’s significantly higher, then the Tories will have some competition.
So it seems tomorrow will be a bad night for every party in England. And that, by Friday, Alex Salmond’s grin will be able to be seen from the moon.
Fraser Nelson
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