Katy Balls Katy Balls

Who would lead the Tories into a snap election?

After Theresa May’s deal was defeated in the House of Commons for a third time, there’s heightened speculation that we could now be heading for a snap election. With the Withdrawal Agreement defeated by 58 votes, even if No. 10 tries to put it to another vote it’s hard to see how May would manage the numbers. This is why talk has turned to an early election. In the immediate aftermath of that result, both Jeremy Corbyn and the SNP’s Ian Blackford called for one. Meanwhile, Theresa May gave the biggest hint yet that she could go for one – ‘I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this House’.

If MPs fail to get behind May’s plan, they could use the indicative votes next week to push for a softer Brexit in the form of a Norway style model or a permanent customs union. There are plenty of Conservative MPs who faced with the choice would rather go to the polls than break their Brexit manifesto commitments. This week, Coffee House understands a letter has been doing the rounds among Tory MPs which aims to remind Theresa May of their red lines and why a long extension – that would include MEP elections – would be intolerable. It’s been signed by half the Conservative party according to one MP and the list includes ministers (those who make up the Brexiteer pizza club). One figure involved with it worries that the red lines in the letter mean that those who sign it are edging closer to backing a snap poll as the only way out of the deadlock.

So, who would lead the Tories into an early election? Theresa May this week promised to resign before the second half of the negotiations if her deal passed – but she said nothing about leaving if it didn’t.

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