Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

The mystery of Britain’s surging at-home deaths

(Getty)

Britain may look like it’s back to normal after the lockdowns but one alarming trend that emerged in 2020 is very much still with us: people dying at home, who would once have been seen in hospital. This is called ‘excess’ at-home deaths; a number very energetically reported when deaths related to Covid — but not so closely followed for the thousands unrelated deaths. So what’s going on?

This year so far some 13,000 people more than average died at home in England and Wales. In hospitals though it’s 7,200 below average and there have been 3,649 fewer in care homes too. In Scotland there have been over 7,000 excess deaths at home, but only 1,000 in hospitals and in care homes there were 1,320 less than expected. This could be a sign of Illnesses not being diagnosed through the normal health channels. Doctors are worried.

In the week to 17 June (the most recent data), deaths at home were 30 per cent above five-year average while deaths in hospitals just 10 per cent above average. Some 715 more people died than had been expected to. The Covid wave we’re in now — caused by the more transmissible BA.4 and BA.5 sub variants — has pushed hospitalisations up and with them excess hospital deaths too. But proportionally these deaths are still far smaller than those at home — 29 per cent vs 10 per cent in hospitals and 16 per cent in care homes. For the first 15 weeks of this year there were no excess hospital deaths at all.

The lack of excess deaths in hospitals and care homes at the start of the year can to some extent be explained by how excess deaths are calculated. The five-year average statisticians use now includes 2021 (though 2020 is left out). In January and February last year Covid deaths had just peaked.

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