As Theresa May and her ministers spend their summer holiday trying to convince European leaders of the merits of her widely-panned Chequers Brexit blueprint, one of her departed ministers has cause for celebration. According to the latest ConservativeHome poll of Tory members, since resigning as Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has become the favourite among party members to be the next leader. Supported by nearly a third of members, this is an impressive turnaround given that a month ago – when he was still in government – he was backed by only 8 per cent of members.
However, it’s also not that surprising. As I said in the i paper last week, Johnson looks to be on course to turn Theresa May’s Brexit disaster into his big opportunity. As the Brexiteer once said: ‘My friends, as I have discovered myself, there are no disasters, only opportunities. And, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters.’ With the Tories lagging in the polls and blue-on-blue warfare rife, that opportunity is coming up the track fast.
Although the Prime Minister has clung on until the summer recess, her ministers’ leadership ambitions might not have. After the Prime Minister’s proposed Chequers Brexit plan provoked frontbench resignations, threats of a no confidence vote and a Conservative grassroots backlash, her government is in trouble. The Chequers proposals for a close relationship with the EU post-Brexit have gone down badly with Tory associations and the public; only 12 percent of voters think it is good for Britain. Talk of a leadership contest before the new year is rife, and if it happens this isn’t just bad news for May: her ambitious ministers have reason to fear too.
Before the Chequers summit, the frontrunners to make it through the Parliamentary rounds of an eventual leadership contest and into the membership run off were Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
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