David Cameron is heading up to Glasgow East on Monday to make a visit with Iain Duncan Smith – and they will be campaigning like mad. You may think they’d take their foot of the pedal and leave it to the Queen’s Own Cameron Highlanders (aka the Scottish National Party). But it suits the Tories better when Brown clings on. They want him wounded, but surviving. He is, after all, the Tories’ most powerful recruiting sergeant. Remember this is a 13,500 majority on a 30,900 turnout – ie, Labour had a stonking 61% of the vote last time and the SNP 17%. Cabinet members I have spoken to uniformly predict defeat, as do bookmakers. I disagree.
The SNP has two advantages. One is momentum. The other is superior intelligence on the ground. Glasgow East is one of the modern-day rotten boroughs where no one campaigns because Labour’s majority is so big – but even Labour doesn’t campaign, and doesn’t know the area. They key is identifying the few who vote. The SNP has sharpened its campaigning operation and its national research means it’s better placed to identify swing voters than the Tories in Glasgow East. (One trick, by the way, is to start campaigning at the very top of a tenement so you can run downstairs if things get ugly. If they chase you on the way up, you’re done for).
But my own guess is that Labour will win, with a vastly reduced majority because the SNP machine, while good, isn’t so good (or so prepared for urban battle) that it can turn around something of this scale. Glasgow East defies traditional campaigning norms. And I also think the Tories will hold their 7% voting share. Remember IDS has a track record and personal reputation here – he knows Easterhouse, the largest housing scheme in Glasgow East, and has spent more time talking about the problems in this constituency than perhaps anyone in
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