There are two big speeches being made in London today. Shortly after midday, Liz Kendall will rise in the House of Commons to explain how she intends to reform the welfare system. But before that, Kemi Badenoch will launch her policy commissions to put together a credible Conservative platform in 2029. Cutting benefits or making the Tories electable: one wonders which woman has the harder task.
The challenge of opposition is always in getting your message heard. So it is to the credit of the Tory spinners then that they have managed to splash both the Mail and Telegraph with Badenoch’s claim that ‘Net Zero by 2050 is impossible.’ She will accuse her predecessors of setting the emissions target without a plan that does not ‘bankrupt’ the UK or cause a ‘serious drop in our living standards.’ She will say that reaching net zero emissions in the next 25 years is a ‘fiction’ but refuse to commit to another date instead.
Already the comments are provoking something of a backlash. The Conservative Environment Network – which claimed to represent 150 MPs in the last parliament – was quick to call Badenoch’s comments a ‘mistake.’ They suggest that her decision to rule out Net Zero by 2050 ‘undermines the significant environmental legacy of successive Conservative governments.’ Yet this legacy does not appear to carry much political clout in 2025. Badenoch – who has always professed scepticism of emissions targets – clearly judges that taking on the green-lobby is a fight she can afford to have.
The calculation for her and her allies is that while voters happily profess support for ‘green policies’ in polls, they are far less willing to put their money where their mouth is. Research by Onward – the think-tank run by ex-Tory MP Simon Clarke – shows that voters care about the environment but oppose tax increases to pay for net zero. Yes, almost two-thirds of Tory voters think it is important to tackle climate change: but only five per cent would accept increases in individual taxes to fund climate policy.
Badenoch clearly senses an opening here, between Ed Miliband’s wide-eyed zealotry and Richard Tice’s war on renewables. Climate change exists – but tackling it is just one competing priority. Voters also want cheap energy: UK prices are some four times higher than those in the U.S. By taking aim at Net Zero, the Tory leader hopes to reach out to disillusioned ex-2019 Tories and those concerned about their bills. There is an implicit political message too in taking on Boris Johnson’s pet project of Net Zero: a willingness to confront the great political contradictions of the last parliament.
Ahead of her remarks yesterday at the Thatcher conference in London, George Osborne observed that opposition is not about how you are viewed today – but how you will be judged in four years’ time. Rather than rush for quick headlines to get a short-term 24 hours bounce, team Badenoch insist that today’s announcement is both carefully weighted and will be vindicated by the time of the next election.
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