It is a testament to the extraordinary changes underway in Scottish politics that the latest YouGov poll showing the Labour party winning 11 seats north of the border is viewed as a setback. Even six months ago, such findings would have been welcomed with jubilation at the party’s Glasgow headquarters as evidence that voters were, finally, coming back to Labour from the SNP.
Even if voters are not necessarily coming back to Labour in the numbers some might have dared hope, people in Scotland have few reasons to turn out for the SNP either.
As it is, other recent polls have been far more positive for Sir Keir Starmer’s party, suggesting they could win as many as 22 seats in Scotland, up from one currently, and potentially even overtake the SNP as the largest party. It is in that context that YouGov’s recent findings – that the SNP’s vote share has improved to 38 per cent while Labour’s has fallen to 27 per cent – came as a disappointment. Hurried WhatsApp messages pinged between Scottish Labour staff as the poll’s findings were released, with some fearing the party’s seemingly inevitable resurgence had been unexpectedly checked. One Labour MSP even confessed, with only a hint of hyperbole, that the thought of winning only 11 seats from the SNP would now give them sleepless nights.
With the big electoral test of Rutherglen and Hamilton West just three weeks away there is, however, no need for the Labour party to panic about its position in Scotland. Certainly, even if voters are not necessarily coming back to Labour in the numbers some might have dared hope, people in Scotland have few reasons to turn out for the SNP either.
The holy trinity that has sustained the SNP’s electoral dominance over the last decade or more – charisma, constitution and anti-Conservatism – has now been shattered. Nicola Sturgeon, who brought a significant personal vote to the SNP, is gone, her reputation further eroded by the ongoing police investigation into the Nationalists’ party finances. The Supreme Court has closed down the question of a second independence referendum for all but a minority fringe, while those primarily motivated by opposition to the Conservative party can legitimately and credibly vote Labour again in the hope of removing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak from office. In Rutherglen and Hamilton West, there is the added disincentive for would-be SNP voters that their former MP has been forced out by her constituents in disgrace, having previously breached COVID-19 restrictions.
This lack of motivation among nationalists could be hugely significant in the outcome not just of the October by-election, but in the general election in Scotland more broadly, particularly given the narrowness of SNP majorities in many seats.
The electoral history of Rutherglen and Hamilton West itself provides a useful illustration. When the seat was most recently won by Labour in 2017, the party’s vote actually fell by more than 1,200 votes compared to its 2015 drubbing. That didn’t matter because even more SNP voters failed to turnout. Support for the nationalists collapsed by more than 11,000 – allowing Labour to take the seat with a majority of 265 on a reduced turnout.
SNP strategists are clearly concerned a similar scenario could play out at the coming by-election. According to recent reports, the SNP has resorted to hiring professional leafleteers – on zero-hour contracts, no less – to try and bolster its get out the vote operation.
Of course, there is no question that it would be far better from the Labour party’s point of view for it to win back votes from the nationalists. But even if that is not happening to the extent some in the party would hope, that does not necessarily mean all is lost. With the factors that sustained the SNP’s dominance largely dissipated, apathy among the nationalist base could still deliver not only Rutherglen and Hamilton West for Starmer, but plenty of seats in Scotland at a general election too.
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