When Dominic Cummings addressed government advisers recently, he said that he was so out of touch with day-to-day politics that he needed to ask who the current leader of the Liberal Democrats was.
In fairness to the Prime Minister’s most senior adviser, he’s not alone in this confusion. Since Jo Swinson lost her seat to the Scottish National party in the December election, there have been only interim leaders in place as members pick a successor. Ask a No. 10 staffer or Tory MP which candidate they would prefer to win — Layla Moran or Sir Ed Davey — and you are more likely to be met with laughter than a serious reply. Once again the Liberal Democrats are being talked up as a party on the brink of extinction.
Many Tories believe that the Lib Dems blew a perfect opportunity last year. Placed between two polarising leaders in Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, the party, with its clear Remain message, should have been able to hoover up votes from the centre. Instead, it won fewer seats than in 2017 and the moment to stop Brexit passed. ‘They had everything at the last election but they still couldn’t do it,’ says a relaxed Tory MP in a seat where the Liberal Democrats came second.
The problem is not limited to one election either. The 1990s and 2000s, when the Liberal Democrats reliably won around 40 to 60 seats, are a distant memory. It seems that its days of being a ‘vote for none of the above’ have gone.
But while the party may be both diminished and cash-strapped, it’s not done quite yet. In December’s general election it was second in 91 seats, and appears to be within striking distance in a large number of these. Dull as the party’s leadership contest may seem, it will play a role, and a potentially crucial one, in determining whether or not the Tories win a fifth term at the next election.
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