An EU referendum pledge in the next Tory manifesto is ‘basically, a certainty’ according to one of those most closely involved in the party’s electoral strategy for 2015. The current plan is for the manifesto to declare that a Conservative government would renegotiate Britain’s membership of the European Union and then put the new terms to the people in a referendum within 18 months of the general election.
I understand that the Tory line would be that they would urge staying in the EU if Britain’s concerns could be met through this process. But if the rest of the European Union refused to play ball, they would be prepared to advocate leaving.
In the new issue of The Spectator, I argue that there are several reasons why the Tory leadership is set to adopt this position. There’s the fact that the current situation in Europe means renegotiation is far more likely to actually succeed. Then there’s the fact that the party will need something in its manifesto to enthuse its base after five years of coalition compromises. The veto, which gave Cameron a considerable bounce in the opinion polls, has also persuaded the leadership of what a potent political weapon Euroscepticism can be if used in the right way.
There is also recognition that the party needs to insure against too many Tory-inclined voters peeling off to Ukip in key marginals. Ukip’s performance in the local elections and especially in places like Thurrock, where the Tory majority in the parliamentary seat is below 100, have reminded key people in the party that if the Ukip vote increases sizably on 2010 it would do considerable damage to the Tory chances of winning a majority at the next election.
Another thing driving it is Boris. During the mayoral election, he signed up to The People’s Pledge. This changes the dynamics of the debate about Europe in the Tory party. If Boris returns to the Commons, his status would demand a Cabinet post — which would mean, logically, that frontbenchers would have to be able to support the campaign for a referendum, which would lead to many more MPs and Minister signing up to it. But, perhaps even more significant, is that no one running against Boris in a Tory leadership election could concede the referendum issue to him. As one insider said to me, only half-jokingly, ‘a referendum would shoot his [Boris’s] fox just as much as Ukip’s.’
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