On paper, this week ought to be a decisive one for the government’s Brexit position. After Theresa May’s Brexit deal was voted down by 230 votes, MPs now have the chance to vote on their own amendments to that deal. The majority are non-binding – but they do carry political weight – while a handful would lead to legislation and therefore force the government’s hand. The two amendments currently being talked up as the most likely to pass are the Yvette Cooper amendment to stop no deal and the Graham Brady amendment to ditch the backstop.
The Brady amendment seeks to make clear that MPs will back May’s deal if the backstop is replaced with alternative arrangements. Put forward by the 1922 committee chair, the aim is to show that Theresa May’s deal can pass the Commons with Tory and DUP votes if the backstop is replaced. The thinking inside government is that were this to pass it would be helpful as it would show Brussels that if they are willing to give way on the unpopular backstop a deal is possible. However, as James reports, a number of leading Brexiteers have already said they will not back it on the grounds that it is too vague. There is a chance the government could table their own amendment in a bid to win them around. Without the support of the European Research Group it’s hard to see how it will gain sufficient support.
As for the Yvette Cooper amendment – which seeks to get through legislation which would force the government to extend Article 50 if no deal looks likely – many believe it is likely to pass. Those involved think that while some MPs will abstain, not many in Labour will vote against. However, as I’ve said before, it’s no slam dunk. A number of Labour MPs are cautious about the amendment as it involves legislation so means they could be accused of delaying – or even stopping – Brexit. The Labour frontbench is yet to take a position on whether to back it.
It follows that there is a chance neither amendment passes tomorrow night. Were that to happen, there would be some relief in No. 10 that the Cooper amendment had failed. However, it would also provide little reason for cheer. All it would show is that there is still no Commons majority for any Brexit route – including May’s deal. What’s more, Brussels would be even less likely than they are now to grant a concession on the backstop on the grounds that it isn’t clear it would even get the deal over the line. No amendments passing would in theory mean no deal increased in chance – but it’s the view of senior MPs that were no deal to start to look likely nearer to the time ministers would walk en masse to stop it. It follows that what was meant to be a decisive week could just be another one to add to an indecisive Commons.
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