We do not need any further lockdown now and it should only be contemplated in the future as a last resort.
The economic case against lockdowns and severe government restrictions is strong. It is based on two key factors, one of which is continuously overlooked in the present debate. Yet, if we are to learn to live with Covid both merit consideration.
The first argument is one that is well understood: the cost of implementing restrictions. As we are seeing now, it hits certain sectors hard – such as hospitality and the creative sector – and has a wider economic impact, denting confidence. There is a significant fiscal cost too and large negative implications for many other aspects of health care, education especially for poor children, mental health and domestic abuse.
The second economic argument, though, is largely ignored. That is how to interpret the policy implications of the models provided by the epidemiologists.
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