Katy Balls Katy Balls

‘The ultimate death match’: Will it be Boris vs Rishi?

It will take 100 MP nominations to qualify for the next Tory leadership race and the clock is ticking – with Boris Johnson out in front with 51 supporters so far. Rishi Sunak has 44 and Penny Mordaunt 20. It will go to the membership for a swift decision unless the finalists come to a gentleman’s agreement. So how will it unfold?

I set out four scenarios of how this might unfold in The Spectator earlier this month. There are two that MPs have most recently got in touch about: Rishi by Christmas or the Boris restoration.

A week is a long time in politics – and next week could be one of the most dramatic yet

A week is a long time in politics – and next week could be one of the most dramatic yet.

Let’s start with the first. Sunak, who was runner-up in the last leadership contest, has been notably quiet as the Truss premiership unravelled. His supporters said that his reason for missing party conference was to let her ‘own the moment’. Could Sunak conclude it’s his turn now? His name comes up regularly among MPs trying to work out who might be best placed to clean up the current mess.

As his supporters are all too willing to point out, he predicted and warned about a lot of the things that happened during the short-lived Truss premiership – from rising mortgage rates (his campaign ran this calculator) as well as a run on the pound. The tricky economic situation the country finds itself in means there are MPs who didn’t back Sunak last time who think he could be the right person for this moment. But the biggest criticism Sunak receives when MPs discuss his prospects is party unity. There are still Johnson loyalists who blame the former chancellor for his downfall.

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