James Forsyth James Forsyth

Will Leave voters forgive a Brexit delay?

‘It is definitely less than 50 per cent,’ says one Downing Street source when asked about the chances of a Brexit deal. And this is one of the optimists. One cabinet minister warns that the UK ‘is driving into a brick wall’ with its current Brexit proposals; other ministers are not sure if this offer is designed to make a deal or just to make the point that London was prepared to compromise but Brussels refused to budge.

So it’s a stand-off. Boris Johnson is determined to take the whole of the UK out of the customs union, and the Irish and the EU are equally robust in their view that there can’t be checks on the island of Ireland. It’s plain that there isn’t going to be a deal any time soon, and there might not be many more negotiations either. No. 10 is clear that it isn’t interested in Potemkin talks. It only wants to do them if there is a genuine chance of a deal.

The odds are that negotiations will have broken down before the EU Council in mid-October. The Benn Act legally obliges the UK government to seek an extension on 19 October if no agreement with the EU has been reached. Downing Street, though, is adamant that it won’t be requesting an extension — but neither will the Prime Minister disobey the law. Those close to him are clear that he won’t resign either. He doesn’t want to give up the job and thinks voters wouldn’t thank him for letting Jeremy Corbyn in.

No. 10 is frantically looking for loopholes in the Benn Act, a plausible way to avoid sending the letter which isn’t simply breaking the law. They know that whatever the legal justification for their actions, they’ll be challenged in court — and will probably lose.

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