Rishi Sunak attempted to get on the front foot this week by giving an update on the progress he has so far made on his pledge to stop the Channel migrant boats. The Prime Minister announced that the government had procured two new barges to house those seeking asylum and said that small boat arrivals to the UK are down by 20 per cent this year. However, the game changer would be flights to Rwanda getting off the ground. The Sun reports today that flights could take off as soon as September if they win a key legal fight in the coming weeks.
As I reported last month, September is viewed within the Home Office and No. 10 as the best case scenario for flights departing to Rwanda. The Court of Appeal’s verdict is expected in the coming weeks. If it finds in favour of the government, campaigners are likely to go to the UK Supreme Court. However, it could refuse to consider the case, saying the Rwanda scheme has already been ruled lawful by very senior judges and does not merit yet another appeal. If so, deportations could start by September.
‘It’s either stop the boats or leave the ECHR,’ says one senior Tory
Campaigners would then go back to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), but this would not stop deportations. The blessing of three UK court rulings could be enough for the government to get Rwanda-bound planes on the runway, potentially with caveats such as a promise to return individuals if Strasbourg eventually found against them. By then, the Illegal Migration Bill may have passed into law, explicitly giving ministers the power to ignore Strasbourg and the interim junctions from the court, known as Rule 39 orders, that halt deportation flights. This would allow the government to get flights going on a significant scale.
Flights have been grounded since Boris Johnson’s Rwanda deportation scheme was stopped by the ECHR, pending legal consideration. The government won the first ruling, but campaigners appealed.
If the Court of Appeal’s decision does not go the government’s way – or the matter goes to the Supreme Court – the timetable will slip further. If the UK Supreme Court strikes down the Rwanda scheme, the Tories could even end up going to Strasbourg to ask its judges to overrule those in London. This option is being considered.
Should Strasbourg somehow manage to frustrate the scheme, or the UK courts find against the government and declare Rwanda is an unsafe country, this would mean a showdown. The Tories could pledge a referendum on leaving the ECHR in their manifesto, hoping to reconvene the Brexit alliance of voters that delivered the 2019 majority. (The assumption is that the public would support the Rwanda scheme by a margin of two to one.) ‘It’s either stop the boats or leave the ECHR,’ says one senior Tory.
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