Will the No. 10 flat criticism bounce off Boris?

Will the Downing Street flat criticism bounce off Boris Johnson? The Prime Minister is under fire this week over the refurbishment of the No. 11 apartment. After the Electoral Commission launched a formal investigation, today’s front pages make particularly miserable reading for No. 10. However, the Prime Minister has earned a reputation as a politician who is ‘scandal-proof’ in a way that many of his colleagues are not. Will this be the same? 

Polling since the story took off is fairly limited but a BMG Research poll published today — taken Thursday to Monday — on the question of ‘preferred prime minister’ puts Boris Johnson on 40 per cent and Keir Starmer on just 24 per cent. This means Johnson’s approval ratings have risen since the last poll in March:

Such findings are likely to reassure Tory MPs. Not that there is much panic in the Conservative party to begin with. While Conservative MPs are not thrilled that Tory psychodrama is once again leading the news, the general view is that the far more important thing is the successful vaccine roll-out and it’s this that will be the deciding factor in the local elections rather than questions over the funding of expensive wallpaper.

Labour have been pushing the Tory sleaze narrative ever since the Greensill saga involving David Cameron first came to light with limited success. Several Tory MPs claim they have not received a single email from constituents over Greensill and lobbying. The issue of the flat is a bit more potent — MPs say it is starting to come up on the doorstep, along with general infighting comments, but it’s not yet at a level of real concern.

Were the Tories to win the Hartlepool by-election, it would likely prove such a boost to the party that the flat would be viewed as increasingly trivial. However, Johnson’s problem is that the flat row is not a flash in the plan or about to go away. The Electoral Commission’s decision to launch a formal investigation means that it is now likely to run on and on. The Commission is known for taking its time on these inquiries — months could become years. 

It follows that judging the impact of the row is more complicated than looking at the latest polling. With Johnson’s former aide Dominic Cummings set to give evidence before the Commons Covid inquiry next month (and general media leaks unlikely to stop), the row is likely to run on and on. The more serious concern among Tory MPs is not about the local elections but whether the affair slowly chips away at the Conservative brand.