Despite winning a majority in the region of 80 in the 2019 general election, the Tories’ working majority currently stands at 60. After next week’s triple by-election it could be reduced even further. On Thursday voters will go to the polls in three seats currently held by the Conservatives: Selby and Ainsty (20,137), Somerton and Frome (19,213) and Uxbridge and South Ruislip (7,210). The working assumption among many of the MPs and activists who have gone to campaign is they they have a good chance of losing all three.
As things stand, Somerton and Frome – sparked by the resignation of David Warburton – is seen by the Tories as the hardest to hold onto, with the Liberal Democrats expected to win the seat comfortably. Selby and Aintsy is the seat (which Hannah Tomes takes the temperature of here) that the Tories were initially the most hopeful about keeping hold of, given it has been Tory since its creation. However, those on the ground have become more pessimistic as the campaign has gone on about their chances in the North Yorkshire seat.
Meanwhile, Uxbridge ought to be the least safe given it is by far the smallest majority. However, several MPs say they have been getting a better reception there than in the other seats when campaigning. In 2022, the Tories suffered a record defeat across the capital but Hillingdon Council showed little signs of enthusiasm for Labour. It’s also the case that the Tories are focussing their campaign around Ulez (ultra low emission zones) which the Labour mayor Sadiq Khan has backed the expansion of.
Expectations are so low that if Sunak manages to hold even one of these seats, there will likely be heavy relief in government. While MPs and ministers say three defeats have effectively been priced in, similar comments were made about the local election results – yet the Tories’ poor showing killed a sense of recovery prior to them. It means that a triple loss will likely reopen debates about the electoral strategy – and whether Sunak needs to go beyond the five priorities.
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