Mark Daniell previews the Rugby World Cup semi-finals.
Mark Daniell
Chaos theory states that because of its incomprehensibly complex structure, the universe and everything in it is unpredictable. Established in the twentieth century, the idea is accepted as ‘good enough for now’ by most budding astrophysicists, and lately it would seem by most rugby fans too.
The theory suggests that the tiniest influence, so easily overlooked at source, can have a monumental effect somewhere else, and is most famously illustrated by the Butterfly Effect: a butterfly flapping its wings in London may cause a hurricane in Mexico. (Interestingly, the inverse effect has yet to be studied, but it has been suggested that a combination of global warming and the ‘Hurricane Effect’ is responsible for something of an extermination of London’s butterflies.)
Either way, a classic example of this was witnessed over the weekend when the chief executive of Australian rugby, John O’Neill, famously stated that he hated the English. A small wing flap that had been intended as a quip to sell papers and mock the old enemy resulted in a colossal England forward performance with the consequence that O’Neill is now flapping his wings back to Darwin.
Considering the previous England performances it was a truly astonishing result. Going into the match, Martin Johnson had tried to temper expectations as he pointed out that Australia had only lost one knock-out match in the last two World Cups. Clearly this isn’t much of a mathematical revelation since a team can only lose one knock-out match per World Cup (hence the term ‘knock-out’) and the point could just as easily have been made that Australia won the trophy eight years ago, but his point was: they’re hard to beat.
Personally, I see O’Neill’s casual aside as unwittingly sparking a St Crispin’s Eve fervour in the England camp which mixed with the knowledge that defeat would mean immediate international retirement for many of this aging band of brothers produced a performance of unforeseen determination.
Yes, I know it’s hackneyed, but then if you can’t plunder Henry V’s monologue ahead of England vs. France in Paris, when can you? And yet I fear things won’t be so easy this time round. Playing France in front of a home crowd is hard enough, attempting to knock them out of their own World Cup is harder still; but considering they’ve just defeated the outright favourites, on foreign soil and through little more than sheer desire it is a labour that would have intimidated even Hercules. France made 178 successful tackles to the All Blacks’ 36 and outscored them in spite of having only 28% of possession. If anything their performance was even more superhuman than England’s.
Furthermore, in comparison to Martin Johnson’s functional if not enlightening grasp of maths, France boast superior scientific analysis from former player Thomas Castaignède who, when asked about the questionable passes that lead to France’s winning try (two of which looked suspiciously forward) replied, “all passes are forward, it depends from where you look at them.” At least, he didn’t start on about seagulls and sardines.
Somehow a rematch of last World Cup’s semi-final has been set up, albeit with the favourites reversed. Then again we should not be surprised, if sport has taught us anything it’s that repetition is commonplace and superstition works.
In the other semi-final, to be played on Sunday, South Africa take on Argentina. Ever since the quarter-final draw, South Africa have been laughing into their Stellenbosch: all the favourites in one half and only Fiji and Argentina to circumnavigate essentially makes for a bye to the final meanwhile points are flowing as freely as the beer.
Now I should probably say at this stage that I hate South Africa. And I don’t mean that in a bigoted, jingoistic, rabble-rousing way, I mean it as it reads. They beat us 36-0 three weeks ago, and I’d driven all the way to Paris for the night. That’s a six hundred mile round trip without a point to cheer. I hate those fifteen men. (plus substitutes)
Sadly, the South African’s exuberance is probably justified. With the All Blacks and Australia gone and only Argentina before the final, life is looking good for them. But be warned, Argentina have already caused a few upsets on the way, and sport does love both repetition and superstition.
Remember the European football championship three years ago, the hosts (Portugal) faced rank outsiders (Greece) in the opening game and lost. It was overlooked as a fluke. Portugal pulled up their socks and proceeded to the final on home soil. There they met… rank outsiders Greece. How did little fancied Greece get there? What right did they have? Either way, everyone agreed they’d ridden their luck too long and the dream would end. Portugal lost. Sport likes voodoo.
So, taking into account Chaos Theory and voodoo, my prediction for the final is that Argentina will beat France, just as they did in the opening game six weeks earlier.
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