A YouGov poll tonight has the Tory lead down to two points. The Tories are on 36, Labour 34 and the Lib Dems 17. Before we all get too excited about this narrowing of the Tory lead, we should note that the poll’s fieldwork was nearly all done before people were fully aware of what was in the Budget.
This poll is grim news for the Tories. If in a week where we have seen a former Labour cabinet minister prostituting himself on TV and learned that Samantha Cameron is pregnant, the Tory lead is down then one is tempted to ask when will it grow. But I strongly suspect that when we see tomorrow’s YouGov poll we’ll see that this poll is a blip.
The consolation for the Tories is that the post-Budget polls will now almost certainly show a bounce compared to this evening’s numbers. Indeed, I’ve heard talk of a poll concentrating on groups disproportionately represented in the marginals which shows the Tories on course for a comfortable victory.