I open the calculator on my phone to count how many civilians have been killed in Ukraine over the past five days. The number 38 stares back at me. I hope I haven’t missed anyone. An apartment block in Kyiv. A five-story building in Pavlohrad. A bus in Marhanets. Russian missiles and drones found Ukrainians in their beds, on their way to work or school. In Kherson, the traffic lights had to be switched off to stop Russian drones striking civilian cars as they stopped at junctions. The city remains a training ground for fresh Russian recruits. Hunting real people teaches them more quickly than hitting lifeless dots on a screen.
Yet the peace talks continue. Steve Witkoff, the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, has met Vladimir Putin today for a fourth round. Putin greeted him with a smile, tapping him on the shoulder like an old friend. Watching them exchange pleasantries feels grotesque, and so Ukrainian eyes are turned elsewhere – towards Kyiv. The capital is in mourning – again – after a North Korean KN-23 ballistic missile slammed into a residential building in the early hours of Thursday, killing 12 and injuring more than 90. A dozen schoolmates stood for hours watching the rubble, hoping their friend would be pulled out alive. They wept in each other’s arms when rescuers finally retrieved the body of 17-year-old Danylo twelve hours later. His parents were killed, too.
The massacre left even Donald Trump unable to stay silent. Saying nothing would have been too loud, too deliberate. So he posted on Truth Social: ‘Vladimir, STOP!’. The plea – in his traditional caps lock – was Trump’s mightiest threat to Russia so far. But in Ukraine, it was met with bitter laughter. There’s no need to explain why Ukrainians don’t buy into the Russian ‘peace intentions’ Trump keeps rambling on about. Putin’s daily attacks during peace talks – and his refusal to agree to a full ceasefire – shows he will continue the war until Ukraine is served to him on a silver platter. So the violence continues on both sides: Ukrainian special forces struck back today, killing a high-ranking Russian general in a car bombing near Moscow.
Trump calls himself a mediator, but he hasn’t treated both countries equally. Asked yesterday what pressure he’s putting on Putin to match the extensive concessions Ukraine is being pushed to make, Trump claimed Russia had already made a ‘pretty big concession’ by not seizing the whole of Ukraine. This is a lie. Russia hasn’t taken the whole country because it can’t. Over the past year, Russian forces have gained just 0.65% more territory in Ukraine. They still haven’t reclaimed the land they held in October 2022 – then lost – despite throwing tens of thousands of men at their war effort.
Volodymyr Zelensky is carefully avoiding giving a blunt ‘no’ to Trump’s peace deal, which demands Ukraine surrender Crimea in exchange for a sham ceasefire. Backed by European allies, Zelensky has offered a counterproposal. He insists there will be no negotiations on territorial concessions until a full, unconditional ceasefire is in place. He is calling for security guarantees for Ukraine and also for the sanctions on Russia to be lifted only after a ‘sustainable peace’ is achieved – not before, as the White House is reportedly considering. Zelensky is also asking for the return of all deported Ukrainian children and a complete prisoner exchange.
Trump can put as much pressure on Ukraine as he wants, but sooner or later, he will have to take Zelensky’s terms into account. His window of opportunity is closing: once Joe Biden’s final aid package runs dry, Washington will lose its final piece of leverage over Ukraine.
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