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Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Budget 2011 live blog

1348, PH: And Ed Miliband comes to a close, still sounding the same note: that the growth downgrades prove the coalition is bad for the nation’s health. We’ll come to a close there, too. Thanks for tuning in. More Budget coverage on Coffee House all afternoon, starting with these graphs. 1244, PH: Ed Miliband is suggesting that Labour were tougher on the banks because their bonus tax raised £3.5 billion. Problem is, it’s esimated that, after other tax effects, the actual amount that ended up in Treasury coffers was more like £2 billion — if that. 1342, PH: Oh, Miliband’s back on growth again: “The OBR has factored in every

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Osborne’s white rabbit

We can expect at least one rabbit out of the hat in George Osborne’s Budget speech. The Chancellor is a canny enough operator to have held at least one big announcement back. Already this morning, we have had news that all councils will freeze or reduce their council tax next year. But I expect there is one more on fuel to come in the speech itself, possibly the suspension of the fuel duty escalator for this parliament. This move would be expensive but it would also say I feel your pain and stop Osborne having to come back to the price of petrol every year. For Ed Miliband, today will

Tuesday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Budget eve

In stark contrast to 2003, when Gordon Brown delivered his Budget on the same day that Baghdad fell, the Treasury is phlegmatic about the Budget being overshadowed by Britain’s involvement in a conflict overseas. But the signs are that this will be, within the obvious fiscal constraints, an ambitious Budget. Tonight, we have had confirmation of a raise in the income tax allowance to £8,000, something that will please the Lib Dems . Tomorrow, we’ll almost certainly get at least one unexpected rabbit out of the hat. What we do know is that the Budget and the growth review will be built around four things: deregulation, planning reform, tax simplification

Jo Johnson-Mp

Web Exclusive: HolyBookers 1 – Facebookers 0

Cairo The Facebook and Twitter revolutionaries are taking a beating at the hands of the Brothers. The results of Saturday’s referendum are now out and they point to a simple truth: the internet was fine as a tool for gathering a few hundred thousand youths in Tahrir Square; but it is largely irrelevant as a means of winning elections across large swathes of Egypt, where three-quarters of the 83 million population have no internet connection at all. On a massive turnout, and in the fairest vote in the country’s modern history, 77 per cent of Egyptians sided with the Muslim Brotherhood in saying “Yes” to a quick and dirty patch-up

Peter Hoskin

Your five-point guide to tomorrow’s Budget

From rescue to recovery — that’s how George Osborne is selling his Budget ahead of its release tomorrow. But what might we see beyond the rhetoric? Here’s a five-point guide for CoffeeHousers:   1) Growth. It almost feels like a tradition now: a new Budget, and a new set of forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Chief among them will be what the OBR says about growth. Its previous forecast for 2011, made last November, was for 2.1 per cent growth in 2011 — but that will almost certainly be downgraded after the mini-slump in the fourth quarter of last year. As this graph shows, the average of the

Monday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Commons votes to support the intervention in Libya

The House of Commons has just voted by 557 to 13 to support Britain’s participation in the enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1973. This came at the end of six and a half hours of respectful debate rounded off by a speech from the Foreign Secretary that reminded us why he was for so long regarded as the best parliamentary performer on either side of the House. Hague offered an assurance that if the mission changes, the government will return to the House. This was widely understood to mean that no ground troops would be committed without the support of the House. He also confirmed that the costs of

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron promises that Libya is ‘not another Iraq’

Discussion of military action brings a different atmosphere to the chamber of the House of Commons: quieter, less disputatious, more consensual. In opening the debate, the Prime Minister took a huge number of interventions including a large number from those MPs who are most sceptical of this intervention. All were heard respectfully and answered respectfully. Cameron’s desire to find consensus was part of his broader message that this is ‘not another Iraq.’ He stressed that the action in Libya was necessary, legal and right and that any kind of occupying force is ruled out. He argued that the intervention had been ‘in the nick of time’ to prevent a massacre

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Three Cheers for John Hemming MP

Come the revolution, you’re supposed to hang the lawyers first. Which is fine. But it might be better to start with the judges. Specifically those that are happy to grant injunctions that prevent members of the public from raising matters of concern with their local MP. I ken that commonsense need not be compatible with jurisprudence but this oversteps the mark by some considerable distance. It is outrageous and so outlandish that one wonders how it can actually happen. But happen it does and, it turns out, more frequently than you might think and certainly more often than you’re supposed to know. So three cheers for John Hemming*, MP for

The Spectator

Just in case you missed them… | 21 March 2011

…here are some of the posts made at Spectator.co.uk over the weekend. Fraser Nelson makes some Budget predictions, and describes a threat to British liberty. James Forsyth explains why Osborne is so keen to unite National Insurance and Income Tax, and analyses the weekend’s events in Libya. David Blackburn notes that Sarkozy is being lauded by the French press, and reckons that Obama’s vacillation suits Gaddafi. Daniel Korski wants NATO to get a move on. Alex Massie thinks that the goals of the Libyan operation must be clarified. And Melanie Phillips is stuck in Wonderland.

Sunday

David Blackburn

The Arab League puts a spanner in the works

According to Sky’s Tim Marshall, the Arab League is to meet in emergency session to discuss events in Libya. It seems that some of its members are opposed to the action being taken by the French, which it believes exceeds the remit of the UN Resolution for a no-fly zone. The bombing of tanks in particular has raised the ire of its General Secretary Amr Moussa. The Arab League’s assent was crucial to obtaining the Resolution, so Moussa’s reservations are significant – although quite what he thought he was agreeing to in the first place is anyone’s guess. Moussa is a probable candidate in the forthcoming Egyptian presidential election, so

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Why Osborne is so interested in merging income tax and National Insurance

When trying to understand George Osborne Budgets, you need to bear in mind the mantra that he and his team live by: in opposition you move to the centre, in government you move the centre. It is this desire to move the centre ground that lies behind Osborne’s keenness to merge income tax and national insurance. As I say in the Mail on Sunday, the thinking behind it is that if people were more aware of how much tax they really paid, they’d be more inclined to vote for low-tax parties. At the moment, National Insurance is one of the taxes people are least aware of as it is simply

David Blackburn

The allies converge on Gaddafi

George Osborne appeared on the Andrew Marr show this morning to introduce the Pledge of his Budget magic trick. But Marr and his viewers wanted talk about the show of military strength over Libya. Osborne reiterated that the government is committed to enforcing the UN Resolution and had no plans to deploy ground troops at this stage. He refused to rule out the use of British ground forces in the future. Privately, officials are trying to dispel the perception that the UN Resolution forbids the use of Special Forces commandos to assist the bombing campaign. The Resolution does not permit an occupation, but it would be very surprising if covert

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

George Osborne’s Budget magic trick

Spare a thought for George Osborne and Danny Alexander. They had their own budgetary magic show planned for Wednesday, and were yet again planning to be the Paul Daniels and Debbie McGhee of British politics. Now, it looks like they’re going to be competing with exploding Libyan MiGs for the national attention. This Budget was, as James says in his cover story this week, the government’s great hope for getting itself back on track. Grabbing the newspaper headlines, resetting the narrative etc. Now, the budget will be overshadowed by war. These Tomahawks don’t come cheap and Osborne has pitifully few cards to play. He knows that his budget will not live

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Cameron’s achievement

Just last month, David Cameron declared that you “can’t drop democracy from 40,000 feet.” He’s right. It’s more like 400 feet: this is the cruising altitude of the 112 Tomahawk missiles fired from British and American submarines earlier this evening, low enough to dodge Gaddafi’s radars and take out some 20 targets. Given that Obama and Cameron have both ruled out ground forces this will be, as Kosovo was, a bombing-only campaign. And launched on the eighth anniversary of the Iraq war. The US Navy, which was always itching to proceed with the no-fly zone, is now leading the operation; hence its briefing, on CNN, above. There is one British

Saturday

Interconnect

Independent spirit

For many years, The Spectator has cheered on the Conservative party’s plans to reform Britain’s state education system. As our country hurtles down the international league tables, it is clear that something must be done to fix our schools. We can no longer compete with countries that once regarded us a role model. And what has inspired us in our campaign, and preserved our faith in Britain’s potential, is the enduring excellence of so many of our independent schools. For all the talk of national decline, our private schools are the envy of the world, much as they were in Victorian times. Independence fosters diversity, and independent schools tend to

Carol Sarler

Old father time

Becoming a dad past retirement age isn’t miraculous, it’s just selfish He isn’t the first and he won’t be the last. But lack of originality was clearly the least of Donald Trelford’s concerns as he commandeered acres of Sunday newsprint to boast of the arrival of his baby son, Ben. Mr Trelford is, if you please, a strapping 73 years of age and joins a motley club including Des O’Connor (a father at 72), Luciano Pavarotti (67), Clint Eastwood (67), Rupert Murdoch (72), Rod Stewart (66 — his eighth) with no shortage, I fear, to follow. Most of them, if pushed, will put up a stout defence to justify their

Friday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The threat to a British liberty

It’s a funny old world. I have now been contacted by two journalists informing me that Bedfordshire Police are investigating The Spectator. Why? Because of the Melanie Philips blog where she referred to the “moral depravity” of “the Arabs” who killed the Fogel family in Israel. CoffeeHousers can judge for themselves if they agree or disagree with her language and views – but should this be illegal?  The Guardian has written this story up, claiming The Spectator is being investigated by the Press Complaints Commission. This is untrue. The PCC tell me that a complaint has been lodged, but that’s as far as it has gone. They investigate only if

David Blackburn

Does Sarko deserve more credit than Cameron?

Just as the British press is venerating David Cameron in the aftermath of last night’s UN resolution, so too the French press is praising President Sarkozy. In fact, the whole administration is basking in his reflected glory. Le Figaro describes Sarkozy’s and Prime Minister François Fillon’s roles in obtaining the UN Resolution and preparing the French military for action; the Defence minister also receives a hearty appraisal. Even the Presidency’s determined adversaries have expressed more than grudging respect. The left-wing newspaper Libération applauds Foreign Minister (and grand old man of Gaullism) Alain Juppé’s success in bringing the fractious United Nations to resolution. In recent days, the paper has also reported

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Cameron vs Obama. They can’t both be right about Regime Change.

This afternoon in Washington, Barack Obama was at pains to stress the limited nature of the planned action against Colonel Gaddafi. To wit: “We are not going to use force to go beyond a well-defined goal, specifically the protection of civilians in Libya,” On the other side of the Atlantic, answering questions in the House of Commons, David Cameron said: The aim is clear: to put in place what has been required by the UN Security Council, which is a cessation of hostilities. It is the protection of lives and the protection of people. It is the prevention of a bloodbath in Benghazi. It is to make sure that arms

Daniel Korski

The way to cease fire

Colonel Ghadaffi wants a cease fire. Fine, but Western governments should insist that the no-fly zone still comes into force; that a new UN resolution is drafted to specify cantoment areas for his forces; and that a UN-mandated Arab Leage but NATO-enabled interpositional force is deployed to ensure the ceasefire holds, perhaps with an Egyptian officer as the head working in tandem with the UN and EU envoys to kickstart a political process. Finally, the West should lend massive support to the “free republic” of Benghazi – economic, military and so on. That is the kind of ceasefire the West can accept. Not a ploy that aims to pick the