Data

Did we lock down on a false premise? Yesterday was Ben Warner’s turn at the Covid Inquiry. He was an adviser, and one of the ‘tech bros’ brought in by Dominic Cummings to advise No. 10 on data. He was present at many of the early Sage – and other – meetings where the government’s established mitigation (herd immunity) plan was switched to the suppression (lockdown) strategy.  In Cummings’s evidence to the inquiry last week, he said that models didn’t play a big part in moving the government towards lockdown. Part of the written inquiry evidence supplied by his data man, Ben Warner’s, supports that too. The inquiry KC was

Ten years ago, HMRC unveiled what was billed as ‘the biggest change’ to the tax system since PAYE began in 1944. The taxman mandated employers to report their workers’ pay every time they ran payroll. Introduced to support Universal Credit by providing earnings data in close to real time, it has since been used to support a raft of other public policies too, including Covid furlough. But this change to PAYE Real Time Information (RTI), as HMRC calls it, has been a disaster for households on Universal Credit, taxpayers, public finances and confidence in HMRC and the senior civil service, as the quality of tax data has effectively collapsed. At

Next time there’s a pandemic, the advice of Dr Jenny Harries will be crucial. She runs the UK Health Security Agency, set up during Covid to replace the much-maligned Public Health England. In her interview with the Telegraph there seemed to be a penny-dropping moment where she suggested that Britain may be more like Sweden next time: What we saw with Omicron and later waves of the pandemic, and even now, is that people are good at watching the data and they will take action themselves. You can see it in footfall going down. People actually start to manage their own socialisation, and the [viral] waves flatten off and come down. She

Scotland’s first census results have finally been released: just 444 days after England managed to publish theirs. The once-a-decade count of the population was disastrous at worst and botched at best. As the first deadline for returning the census loomed last April, some 700,000 households – a quarter of the country – were threatened with £1,000 fines for not completing it. It had taken over a month to reach a 74 per cent response rate. Eleven years ago it took just ten days. Now that the results are in, the final response rate was 89 per cent: well short of the official target of 94 and the 97 per cent

Yet another of Rishi Sunak’s five targets looks to have slipped out of reach. Waiting lists for NHS treatment in England have climbed to another record high and now stand just shy of 7.6 million. There was a slight improvement for the longest waits: those waiting more than a year dropped slightly but still stand at a staggering 383,000. A very unlucky 314 have found themselves languishing on the lists for more than two years. Ministers gave the NHS a target to clear waits of more than 65 weeks by April next year, but there’s been little progress on those either. NHS managers were quick to blame strike action –

In his speech today, the Prime Minister gave five targets: ‘Halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce debt, cut [NHS] waiting lists and stop the boats.’ But are these real targets, or are they the old politician’s trick of promising what will happen anyway? Sunak’s job is made easier by the way economics is reported: everyone says what inflation is, but no one ever prints the forecasts. No one, that is, except The Spectator’s data hub. We like to think we show you what people think is coming, as well as what just happened. A trawl through the data hub shows that all of Sunak’s pledges are, in fact, statements of

With a new year comes the New Year’s Honours and I’m struck to see an MBE given to Pouria Hadjibagheri. He’s the technical lead of a civil service team whose drive and creativity led to the Coronavirus data hub. It was a breakthrough in the democratisation of public data. He and his team saw to it that information and metrics were not the secret preserve of a Whitehall cabal, cherry-picked to make a certain point, but available to everyone. This transformed the debate about the virus and the need for lockdown, allowing for new perspectives and new projects. The Spectator’s data hub was one of them. If you were pleased we avoided

The NHS has a crisis every winter, but this year’s is on a different scale. Before a wave of strikes puts patients and care at risk, stats released by NHS England this morning show a health service already on the brink. Last month, the number of 12-hour waits in A&E departments in England exceeded 37,800, having hit almost 44,000 the month before: a decrease, but a worrying number still. Waiting lists for consultant-led treatment have grown by 74,000 cases and now stand at 7.2 million. Ambulance waiting times are still far higher than they should be too: now at 48 minutes. All of this before the going really gets tough.

The history of political popularity shows things go in one direction: down. John Major entered office with a net satisfaction of +15 and left it having lost 42 points. Blair moved into Downing Street a whopping 60 points in the positive. When he left he’d fallen to -27. And so the story goes – even the Maybot started quite popular with a +35. Where you start can make all the difference. If things are only going to go one way, you want as handsome a margin as possible. That’s why today’s political monitor poll from Ipsos Mori could spell trouble for Truss. She’s beginning her term in office on minus

What’s the link between long Covid and mental health? A study just published in the Journal of the American Medical Association suggests it’s a significant one. The paper looked at more than 3,000 people who tested positive for Covid in the US. Of those who went on to develop ‘long Covid’, it found many of them already experienced mental distress before catching the virus. The study looked at 3,193 people – mostly women – who reported Covid symptoms continuing four weeks after first falling ill. They found that those reporting long Covid were more likely to have already experienced a range of symptoms including ‘depression, anxiety, worry about Covid, loneliness and

London Mayor Sadiq Khan made a bold claim this week: ‘As a result of our junk food advertising ban on Transport for London, nearly 100,000 cases of obesity have been prevented since 2019.’ Hailing the ‘incredible result’, Khan said ‘it’s expected to save the NHS over £200 million’. Is it true though? To ascertain whether the ban worked, researchers from Sheffield university and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine produced a graph. They found that there were some 4.8 per cent fewer obese people than expected and 1.8 per cent fewer overweight people. What they didn’t do was actually count the obesity rate in London’s population. Instead, their estimates

It’s been just over two weeks since Boris Johnson announced his resignation, and the initial flurry of early polling on his potential successor has started to coalesce. The two candidates left standing, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, will have their teams pouring over the available data. And for both sides, the numbers suggest the contest will be a punishing one. There are three key trends which can be identified so far, and these trends pose a difficult choice for those Conservative party members voting for the new prime minister. First: Truss has enjoyed a consistent and significant lead over Sunak in all but one of the seven polls of party

Last month, concerning data revealed the damage lockdown had done to children. Data released today further illuminates the consequences of Covid restrictions. Figures released this morning by the Department for Education paint a worrying picture: attainment in children aged eight to 11 in five key areas – reading, maths, grammar, writing and science – have fallen drastically. The assessments found that only 59 per cent of children are meeting the expected standards in reading, writing and maths compared with 65 per cent before the pandemic. The results are the lowest attainment scores since 2016. The only area which saw an improvement over the lockdown period was reading, which rose one

Is Covid back on the rise? The ONS survey shows increasing prevalence in England and Northern Ireland, with ‘uncertain’ results in Wales and Scotland. Scotland’s prevalence (2.4 per cent have the virus, according to the ONS) is almost double anywhere else. Hospitalisations are rising too: up 17 per cent since last week – though two-thirds are incidental (ie in hospital for other reasons). So is this a new Covid wave? ‘Early signs that Covid may be rising’, says the BBC. But to those following the data closely, the uptick has been expected for some time – as the natural side-effect of a new variant. It is not, in and of

Today, Nicola Sturgeon becomes the longest serving First Minister in the history of devolution. Surpassing Alex Salmond’s seven years, six months and five days. It’s a long time to be in charge: a full generation by some definitions. Certainly time enough to make your mark on a country with devolved powers unparalleled in the democratic world. But what difference has Sturgeon made in her time in office: 1. Life expectancy for Scots men and women has seen the sharpest fall in 40 years – accelerating in the time Sturgeon’s been in power.  Scottish men born today can expect to live 77 years, the lowest of any UK country (it’s 79

Contacts of patients infected with monkeypox are being asked to isolate for three weeks, according to guidance from the UK Health Security Agency. They will also be instructed to ‘avoid contact with immunosuppressed people, pregnant women, and children under 12’. In England, there have been just 20 confirmed cases so far but community spread has concerned scientists. Scotland reported its first case this morning. At least 109 cases have been confirmed globally, with Spain seeing the highest prevalence. A large proportion of cases have been reported among gay and bisexual men though monkeypox is not classified as a sexually transmitted disease. One theory under investigation is that a Pride event in

While Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer await the police’s judgment, there has been no end to the fines issued to others caught by their lockdown rules. At last count, some 136,000 fixed penalty notices had been issued in Britain. Durham police – a fairly easygoing force by Covid standards – have handed out just 1,090. Is it a bit mean to fine someone for having had a glass of wine or a beer at work? Perhaps. But no more so than the fines still being issued under the lockdown rules that Johnson and Starmer both voted through. A student in Leeds was fined £10,000 for organising a snowball fight. A