Economy

Surprisingly big numbers are the theme of this week’s column, several having flashed up to disturb the pleasures of a summer season of parties, music and sport. The first is the 69,000 tally of jobs shed in the UK hospitality industry since the increase in employer’s national insurance contributions in October’s Budget – the most destructive legislative measure for business in recent memory, except perhaps for the Employment Rights Bill that’s expected to receive Royal Assent before parliament’s recess this month. The UKHospitality trade association thinks losses could rise to between 150,000 and 200,000 by the autumn, as 70 per cent of member businesses cut more staff and pub closures

The public won’t forgive and nor will I, said Health Secretary Wes Streeting of plans by junior doctors to strike over his refusal to cave to demands for 29 per cent pay rises. Speaking to the Times he said: ‘There are no grounds for strike action now. Resident doctors have just received the highest pay award across the entire public sector. The Government can’t afford to offer more and it wouldn’t be fair to other NHS workers either, many of whom are paid less’. He’s completely right.  Just shy of half of the British Medical Association’s (BMA) junior doctors (they’re now called resident doctors) voted for strike action, but because of low turnout it

Keir Starmer’s government is heading for trouble – again. Last time it was welfare reform, now it’s SEND (special educational needs and disabilities) funding in schools. It’s being widely reported today that Labour MPs are kicking off over ministers’ refusal over the weekend to rule out cuts in SEND provision, by which councils are legally obliged to give extra support to such pupils, such as dedicated teaching assistants or taxi transport to and from school. The parallels with last week’s row over welfare reform and PIPs are striking. Most obviously, both proposals for cuts are the result of an explosion in the numbers in receipt of funding. 525,000 adults now

Health Secretary Wes Streeting says that the changes to the Welfare Bill will ‘give people peace of mind’. Perhaps for some, but certainly not economists. Britain’s welfare crisis is staggering – £313 billion a year is spent on disability payments, Universal Credit, winter fuel payments, Motability, child benefit, and, most expensive of them all, the state pension. Currently, the state pension costs  over £150 billion a year, and is engineered to grow at the highest of either inflation, wage growth, or 2.5 per cent. When you factor in our rapidly aging population, the welfare state is quite literally primed to blow. Whitehall is on a collision course of its own

The Chancellor Rachel Reeves was in far better form when she appeared again in public alongside the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer yesterday. The tears have been wiped away and she has a smile, even if a slightly forced one, back on her face. The reason is not hard to work out. She has started preparing the ground for another round of big tax rises in the autumn. And that is the one thing she is good at. Reeves is back in her comfort zone.  In the wake of the backbench rebellion that forced the government to abandon its welfare reforms, and with the U-turn on the winter fuel allowance,

When the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer gave his full backing to his Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the brief panic in the markets following her tearful performance in the House of Commons subsided. Gilt yields stopped rising, the pound clawed back some lost ground, and the markets recovered their nerve. It was easy to spin that as bond investors backing Reeves. But is that really true? The markets have seemingly already lost confidence in the Chancellor. They simply prefer stability to chaos, and they quite rightly fear that any of the plausible alternatives will prove even worse. Bond investors have already lost faith in the Chancellor ‘She will be the Chancellor

Labour MPs blaming Rachel Reeves over welfare cuts are like teenagers blaming their mum for telling them to wear a coat when there are bloody great storm clouds on the horizon. It’s silly and it won’t save them from getting soaked. But this is emerging as part of the blame game over Labour’s welfare debacle, where the party’s MPs forced the government to shred its own welfare bill by threatening to vote it down at second reading. ‘She must be toast,’ a Labour MP told the FT. The Times quotes a senior Labour source accusing Reeves of having ‘very little political acumen’. The argument, apparently, is that Reeves is at

The economy has stagnated, foreign investment has collapsed, the non-doms have fled and the entrepreneurs are following them. Meanwhile, Labour backbenchers are clamouring for more spending. Not much has been going right for the Chancellor Rachel Reeves. But she has a grand new plan: increase taxes on saving. Reeves has been reduced to scrabbling around for money wherever she can find it Reeves is expected to announce later this month that the amount that can be put into a tax-free cash Isa every year will be slashed from the current £20,000 to as little as £4,000, and perhaps even less. The decision will be dressed up as encouraging saving in

The machines are already smarter and better organised than humans. They never ask for a pay rise, and they don’t ask any awkward questions about the company’s environmental record. An artificial employee is, in many ways, the model employee. But is artificial intelligence really responsible for a recent fall in entry-level jobs, as new figures from Adzuna, the online jobs board, would have you believe? Or is the Chancellor Rachel Reeves as much to blame as the ChatGPT founder Sam Altman? It may be fashionable to blame AI, but it is wrong It is certainly looking like a tough year to graduate from university. According to figures from Adzuna, the