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Alexander Kolyandr

Trump’s trade war is driving Russia further into China’s arms

Trade between Russia and China is no longer booming as it was immediately after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. In 2024, annual trade between the two was up 1.9 per cent from the previous year to $240 billion (£182 billion). But in the first four months of 2025, it fell 7.5 per cent from the past year to just $71.1 billion (£54 billion), according to Chinese customs data. Chinese exports to Russia are down 5.3 per cent ($30.8 billion or £23 billion), while Russian deliveries to China are down 9.1 per cent ($40.3 billion or £30.5 billion) between January and April.  The drop in Russian exports can

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Ross Clark Ross Clark

No, Ed Miliband: zonal pricing won’t cut energy bills

Is Ed Miliband going to announce a move towards a zonal electricity market, where wholesale prices would vary between regions of Britain? It would appear to be on cards following the Energy and Climate Secretary’s interview on the Today programme in which he said he was considering the idea. Miliband’s apparent support for the plan follows intense lobbying by Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy as well as support from the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the new government-owned company which oversees the grid. However, zonal pricing is bitterly opposed by others in the energy industry, including Chris O’Shea, the generously-moustached CEO of Centrica, and Dale Vince, CEO of Electrocity

Monday

Matthew Lynn

Has Rachel Reeves blown her shot at a US trade deal?

The pictures of a triumphant Rachel Reeves holding aloft a US trade deal as she boards a plane home from Washington should have been all over the front pages this morning. After spending the weekend in Washington, and with a personal meeting with the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the advance briefings were that a deal with the US was very close. Instead, there are now warnings from Pat McFadden that it may take longer than expected. Has Labour blown the chance to sign the first trade accord with the Trump White House? A chance like this is unlikely to come again.  A trade deal with America was never completely

Sunday

Constantin Eckner

Why German beer is going flat

German beer has been an important part of the country’s culture and history for centuries. When tourists think about travelling to Germany, many consider visiting one of the beer gardens in Bavaria or elsewhere. The Oktoberfest is not just the world’s largest Volksfest, but also represents Germany’s fun side. But how much appetite is there for German beer still? Beer exports were down six per cent in 2024 compared to ten years ago, according to figures released by the country’s Federal Statistical Office. Meanwhile, beer consumption in Germany has dropped by 15.1 per cent in the same period. Beer consumption per capita in Germany reached its peak in 1980 That

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Labour’s benefits cuts aren’t working

Britain’s welfare crisis may have slipped from the front pages following Liz Kendall’s £4.8 billion worth of cuts announced ahead of the Spring Statement, but the problems haven’t gone away. Figures quietly released by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) this week show that, despite Labour’s planned ‘reforms’ to the benefits system, nearly a million more people will end up on incapacity benefits by the end of the decade, at an additional cost of £9 billion. Kendall’s reforms have only chipped away a few pebbles from Everest Last autumn, the DWP’s own forecasts projected welfare spending on disabled and sick Britons passing £120 billion by 2030. After all of

Friday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Are things beginning to look up for Rachel Reeves?

The Chancellor will meet America’s top economic official, Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, today as she concludes her trip to the International Monetary Fund’s Spring Meetings in Washington. As discussed on Coffee House this week, Rachel Reeves will use her meeting to attempt to make an Anglo-American trade deal a realistic possibility.  Yesterday, the Chancellor put in a surprise appearance on one of Donald Trump’s favourite news channels, Newsmax, and said she understood that both her government and the Trump administration were elected by voters who felt globalisation had not worked for working people. The tone of her interview was very much aimed at the President and his team. But speaking to an audience closer to home on the BBC, she

Thursday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Can Rachel Reeves woo Trump’s team – without alienating the EU?

The government is on a charm offensive in Washington. Tonight, Britain’s ambassador to the US, Lord Mandelson, will host officials from Donald Trump’s government and American business figures at the British embassy. Tomorrow, the Chancellor will meet her counterpart, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Rachel Reeves is looking to permanently end the punishing 25 per cent tariff on British cars and 10 per levy on other exports. Reeves has given an interview to one of Trump’s favourite channels, Newsmax, in which she was asked about her upcoming meeting with Bessent. In response, Reeves said she believed ‘there was a deal to be done’ and that both Keir Starmer’s and Trump’s governments

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Who do voters trust most on the economy?

12 min listen

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been in Washington D.C. this week at the IMF’s spring meetings, and will meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tomorrow. Cue the ususal talk of compromising on chlorinated chicken. Not so, reports the Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons, who explains that Reeves may offer a reduction in long-standing tariffs already imposed on American cars. But, it’s been a bad week of economic news for the Chancellor as the IMF downgraded the UK’s growth forecast.  We’re also one week away from the local elections – Starmer’s first big test since last year’s general election. The economy isn’t usually the number one issue at local elections but, as More in

Matthew Lynn

Can Rachel Reeves get a US trade deal over the line?

As the Chancellor Rachel Reeves flies into Washington for a series of high-level meetings, there is lots of spin from the Treasury that she is about to tie up a trade deal with the United States. The plan is that it would save the UK from tariffs and may even give a much needed boost to the British economy. But all the evidence we have tells us that Reeves is a terrible negotiator who constantly overestimates her own abilities. It is far more likely she will blow the deal at the last minute.  It hardly sounds like a very promising meeting. On Friday, Reeves is due to meet with President

Martin Vander Weyer Martin Vander Weyer

Save London’s black cabs!

Donald Trump’s Soprano-like threat that the ‘termination’ of Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell ‘cannot come fast enough’ has been headlined as one of his wildest thrusts to date, but is actually one of his most conventional. Prickly politicians always resent unelected central bankers, though they also see them as useful scapegoats for economic trouble. Liz Truss longed to fire Andrew Bailey from the Bank of England; Gordon Brown gave Eddie George’s Bank its ‘independence’ but took away so much of its power that George nearly resigned; Margaret Thatcher never accepted the most potent modern governor, Gordon Richardson, as ‘one of us’. Trump’s predecessors took fewer potshots at the Fed because

Wednesday

Matthew Lynn

Donald Trump has bowed to the markets

A deal will be worked out with China to reduce the tariffs. The chairman of the Federal Reserve won’t be fired. Over the last 24 hours, President Trump has softened his stance on two key planks of his economic policy. It is not hard to work out why. For all the bluster, Trump is ultimately a pragmatist – and that makes him a president the financial markets will live with.  The financial markets have soared today, and the dollar has recovered, while gold, the safe haven in troubled times, has dropped by $100 an ounce. The reason? A dramatic shift in American policy. In China, the escalating trade war had

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Britain’s borrowing is spiralling out of control

Britain borrowed nearly £152 billion in the financial year to March – almost £21 billion more than at the same point in the last financial year, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The latest public finance figures reveal that borrowing in March was the third highest since records began in 1993. Crucially, it’s also nearly £15 billion more than what the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had expected for this point in the financial year. The £9.9 billion headroom Rachel Reeves left herself at the Spring Statement already looks to be in serious doubt. The current budget deficit, which is borrowing to fund day-to-day spending and the metric

Tuesday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Why the IMF has downgraded UK growth

The waves from Donald Trump’s tariff upheaval continue to ripple through the global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its forecasts for global growth to 2.8 per cent for this year and 3 per cent for 2026, down from previous estimates of 3.3 per cent for each year. The UK isn’t immune: the IMF expects British growth to come in at 1.1 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent next year. US growth, meanwhile, falls to 1.8 per cent followed by 1.7 per cent. These cuts were widely expected, but they sharpen the focus on the costs of the current trade tensions. The downward pressure on demand

Matthew Lynn

Trump won’t win against the Fed

President Trump yesterday escalated his attacks on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell over his reluctance to cut interest rates, prompting a fresh plunge on Wall Street. The President may appear determined to cut his central banker down to size. And yet the reality is that Powell is completely right not to cut rates – and the President won’t be able to fight the Fed forever. ‘There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW,’ Trump said on Truth Social, his social media network, yesterday. It was the latest in a series of bitter attacks on Powell for

Thursday

Matthew Lynn

Can Starmer sell a US trade deal to UK business?

The White House reportedly expects that a trade deal between the United States and the UK could be signed within the next few weeks. This should be a big deal, at least for the small island if not for the world’s biggest economy. There could be a grand signing ceremony at Buckingham Palace. Or at a state visit to parliament by President Donald Trump. Or, if nothing else, perhaps Paddington Bear could put in an appearance to boost marmalade exports. But there is just one catch. It will have to be sold to the public and business alike – and that will be very hard for the bitterly anti-Trump Starmer

Wednesday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Britain is not out of the woods on rising inflation just yet

Price rises have unexpectedly eased. The Consumer Price Index rose by just 2.6 per cent in March, down from 2.8 per cent the month before and slightly lower than analysts’ expectations of 2.7 per cent. The figures, just published by the Office for National Statistics, show that the slowdown was driven by falling fuel costs and flat food prices compared to a year ago. Most of the fall was due to lower prices at the pumps, with both petrol and diesel down by 1.6p last month. Meanwhile, prices in some sectors continued to rise – most notably in education, where costs jumped by 7.5 per cent year-on-year, largely due to the introduction

Tuesday

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Has a US-UK trade deal inched closer?

13 min listen

As Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs keep shifting, leaving countries scrambling to react, there has been some good news for Keir Starmer and the Labour government. Speaking to UnHerd, the US vice-president J.D. Vance spoke up the UK’s chances of securing a trade deal. While this would be a win for Starmer, questions remain over the substance – from agriculture to food, what would be included? And can we really believe it will happen? The Spectator’s political editor Katy Balls and deputy US editor Kate Andrews join Patrick Gibbons to discuss.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Is Britain really going to get a trade deal with the US?

Donald Trump loves Britain and loves the King; therefore we can expect a trade deal. That is the gist of J.D. Vance’s interview with UnHerd. Whether that means anything in practice is another matter. Evidently, the President’s love and affection was not enough to spare us from a 10 per cent tariff on exports to the US (and 25 per cent for cars). While Trump changed his mind last week and delayed most tariffs for 90 days there was no delay to the introduction of the 10 per cent tariffs, which will apply to all countries. All that happened as a result of last Thursday’s pullback was that Britain lost

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

The Bank of England’s mission to tame inflation just got harder

Much to the concern of the Bank of England, British workers are continuing to bank inflation-busting pay rises. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that over the three months to February, the average worker received a pay increase of 5.6 per cent. Remove inflation and that works out as a 2.8 per cent real-terms rise.  The persistence of strong pay growth is likely to alarm the nine members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. They have repeatedly warned that they consider sustained wage increases to be a key sign of entrenched inflation. The committee has previously said it wants to see pay growth slow before

Monday

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Scunthorpe’s steel and Birmingham’s bins: a tale of two Labours

10 min listen

Panic has subsided over the British Steel crisis as Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, while visiting the site in Scunthorpe, confirmed that the raw materials needed to keep the furnaces running have been secured. While questions remain over the long-term future of the site, the Government are quite confident in their handling of the crisis so far – something not unhelpful with just over two weeks to go from the local elections. Less helpful is the news that over in Birmingham workers have rejected a pay deal with the Labour-run city council; the bin strike will continue. Is there more the government could be doing to end the dispute? Political

Sunday

Katy Balls Katy Balls

‘Nationalisation in all but name’: the blame game over British Steel

11 min listen

Parliament was recalled from Easter recess for a rare Saturday sitting of Parliament yesterday, to debate the future of British Steel. Legislation was passed to allow the government to take control of the Chinese-owned company – Conservative MP David Davis called this ‘nationalisation in all but name’. Though, with broad support across the House including from Reform leader Nigel Farage, the debate centred less around the cure and more around the cause.  Katy Balls and James Heale join Patrick Gibbons to discuss the debate, the political reaction and how much of a precedent this sets for Starmer.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.