Economy

Prices are continuing to rise. Consumer inflation stayed at 3.8 per cent last month – matching the figure recorded in July and nearly double the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target.  This morning’s figures on CPI, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), were in line with the expectations of markets and pundits. Air fares, which spiked in July due to the summer holidays, were significantly down compared with last year, which offset a rise in fuel, meaning the pace of inflation did not pick up.   There is a tendency in economic reporting to say that because a reading has come in line with forecasts, then it is good

Tesla does not look like a great investment right now. The competition from better and cheaper Chinese electric vehicles is savage and Elon Musk’s outspoken political views have tarnished the brand, at least among the eco-conscious liberals who first adopted it. And yet, Musk has just spent $1 billion (£733 million) of his own money on its shares. His investment only makes sense as a bet on its robotics unit – but that is still very high risk for the company’s pugnacious CEO.  No one could ever accuse Musk of not putting his money where his mouth is. While Tesla may be under more pressure than ever, yesterday he sank

Keir Starmer should be thankful for Lord Mandelson. Were it not for scandal over the Mandelson’s connections with Jeffrey Epstein, more people might have noticed an even greater disgrace this morning. The Prime Minister’s promise of ‘growth, growth, growth’ has ploughed spectacularly into the ground. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports today that there was zero growth in the economy in July, and just 0.2 per cent of growth in the three months to July. Besides being lousy news in itself, it is likely to lead to a further downgrading of future growth forecasts, resulting in the Chancellor having an even bigger black hole in her Budget, necessitating even

Gold goes on up: having risen by an unprecedented 40 per cent in a year to pass $3,600 (or £2,675) per ounce by the beginning of this week, even its most ardent devotees are wondering how long the surge can last. Much of the rise clearly represents a stampede towards the most traditional of safe havens, in anticipation of market storms ahead as well as fears over inflation and Donald Trump’s threat to the independence of the US Federal Reserve. But it also has to do with a secular shift in the economic world: de-dollarisation, as favoured by the busload of US-hating heads of states who partied with Xi Jinping

Are Britons getting sicker and sicker – or is our health improving? There seems to be something of a paradox. According to figures from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) the number of sickness absences has increased from an average of 5.9 days per worker in 2019 to 9.4 days in 2024. Interestingly, the sharp increase in the number of sick days has coincided with a rise in working from home Remarkably, it has increased by 1.6 days in a single year – it was 7.8 days in 2023. This is based on a survey of 1,100 employers, which also found that the most common reasons for work

Here is a rather delightful fact. For 13 years between 2010 and 2023 Britain had a quango called the Office for Tax Simplification. You may never have heard of it, but it really did exist. Its annual report for 2021/22 shows that it was chaired by someone called Kathryn Kearns and had a budget of £1.057 million, £868,000 of which was paid in staff wages. But here’s the thing. In 2010, when it was founded, Tolley’s Tax Guide – the accountant’s bible – ran to 867 pages. The 2023 edition – the year the Office for Tax Simplification was wound up – ran to, er, 1,020 pages. No one should

‘We’re going to get all our oil and gas out of the North Sea’ was certainly a winning line for Kemi Badenoch to deliver to the Offshore Europe conference in Aberdeen this week, just as she might open with ‘I love puppies’ to a spaniel breeders’ convention in Surrey. But other than as an appeal to climate-change-sceptic would-be Reform voters, how much sense did it make? A recent study by the industry body hosting the Aberdeen event says that if – in some Ed-Miliband-free alternative universe – all remaining reserves under the North Sea were licensed for development, they could provide half the UK’s hydrocarbon needs until 2050, by which

What’s the most idiotic question ever posed by an interviewer? There was the real-life Sally Jockstrap who asked David Gower whether he considered himself a batsman or a bowler. Or the Radio 1 DJ who asked Marc Almond – at the height of his fame with Soft Cell – whether he was going steady with a girl. But my nomination goes to Anna Foster on the Today programme this morning. In the midst of an interview with economist Mohamed El-Erian about Britain’s dire fiscal state, she suddenly posed: ‘Would raising taxes at this stage, would that help growth?’ I had to listen back on the catch-up facility to check that

‘UK in the drain’, a trader exclaimed earlier today as 30-year gilt yields punched through to their highest level since 1998. London stocks were down and the pound fell too. The message to trading desks was clear: dump Britain. Things have worsened, at least in part, because yesterday’s Downing Street and Treasury reshuffle included no suggestions that the government has emergency plans to fix Britain’s broken fiscal maths and attempt to balance the books. And as I set out in last week’s cover story, markets are not amused. Wherever you look on the yield curve, Britain’s debt is cementing itself as the most expensive in the developed world. Long-term debt – the

Britain has picked a fight with the pharma industry, and it isn’t clear why we think we can win. Not only might NHS costs rise, but we may also lose access to new medications, making our health service increasingly second class and meaning that people die. Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s fight has made headlines and negotiations over costs between pharmaceutical companies and the government have failed. Eli Lilly, for example, has paused British sales of their weight loss drug Mounjaro, and when they resume next month they will do so at almost triple the price. Several threads tie the current problems together. The first is that governments and pharma companies

Financial crises are often linked to a political crisis. On 8 September, the French government will submit itself to a vote of confidence – which, by all accounts, it will lose. At issue is France’s parlous financial state, which a minority French government seeks to address. This week, French 30-year bond yields reached levels unseen since the Greek debt crisis in 2011, while the 10-year yield has surpassed present-day Greece’s.  France’s economy minister was quick to warn that France’s lamentable financial position could leave it facing an IMF bailout. This was intended to frighten MPs ahead of the vote rather than reflect reality. Greece was borrowing at near 30 per